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Amarin Corporation plc Message Board

  • mtdsus mtdsus Oct 9, 2012 3:29 PM Flag

    Reason for Quiet Period?

    Amarin is in discussion on Buyout and partnership with couple of co.
    Due Diligence is taking lot of time--back and forth.
    A clear picture should emerge in 5 weeks.
    If there were NO discussions in progress--Amarin couldn't hide behind "Quiet Period".
    That is why analysts at Roth and Wedbush made NO new disclosures.
    They like us--are waiting for Quiet period to end and hear about Launch of Vascepa in Jan.2013.
    Around Nov.10th,3rd qtr.earnings report has to be released.

    Sentiment: Buy

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    • mtdsus, picture yourself in Joe Z's desperate situation, the guy has been instrumental in hyping and "boiling" a worthless company that no one will buy.

      He knows this very well and he also knows that there will be no NCE. What would YOU do in his situation?

      The minute the market understands or have it "confirmed" that

      1) They must go it alone


      2) No NCE

      the stock will tank at least 50% in a few days, the institutions will fight like mad dogs to get out, and than the analysts will downgrade their insane estimates (that AMRN themselves know can't possibly be met anyway).

      All the "trust" will be gone and AMRN is then a levered company with enormous risk for future bankruptcy.

      So Joe can't really say anything, the only thing he can do is lay low as long as possible (and hope for another suc*ers rally so he can unload more shares) and pretend that they might get the NCE and continue the talk about the possibility of a "buyout option" (which he knows will not happen).

      But very soon he MUST start to hire to even have a launch and then you can see above why it's game over here..

      • 3 Replies to heidik5b
      • I disagree. Reasons:
        1) Lovaza was launched by Paul Huff-hired by Reliant in Feb.2004--Very strong Sales growth in 3 years to 500mil.$. GSK took it up to 900mil.from 500 mil$.
        2) Lipitor launch --there was no buyout in 1996 or 1997--only partnership with Pfizer.Warner Lambert Stock went up from Jan.1996 --45$ to Dec.1997 -152$ -330% UP!!!

        3) Ritu Baral -Self Launch analysis suggests 27$--
        4) I think stock will be up above 17 when launch begins even without Buyout.
        Look at Reliant and Amarin history:
        Both co.started around 1999. It was when Huff and Zakrzewski were on board that Reliant Sales took off.--other products were duds. Joseph Krivulka was founder.He bought lot of co. from Eli Lilly and others-none did the trick.Several bigwigs invested their money--but it was Lovaza--launched by Huff/Joe--that made money.
        Reliant started in 1999 also--many failed attempts with different drugs.Only in 2009,they hired Declan Doogan from Pfizer .He was Senior VP/head of worldwide development at Pfizer.This person had great track record as researcher.He brought Paresh Soni with him.For a while--Doogan acted as CEO--until Joe was hired.
        Joe developed a strategy--and slowly started to deliver good results from trials as well as patents.Joe was hired in 2010. He hired Paul Huff in Feb.2011--paying him 6.8 mil.$ for 2011-a whopping incentive.
        He strengthened R&D team,regulatory head. CFO was there from 1999.He hired top legal person to ensure NO mistake with SEC or misstatements by top management.

        Sentiment: Buy

      • Can we all just agree that heidi is a short and just move on?

      • Perhaps a bit more negative than reality? I hope so.

        Sentiment: Hold

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