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Amarin Corporation plc Message Board

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  • laujhawj laujhawj Oct 10, 2012 9:51 PM Flag

    Anatomy of a Biotech Sale....

    I more or less agree with everything you said, except (what you said about) the NCE and Aegis analyst Selvaraju's opinion that w/ NCE AMRN's pps could move into the low 20s.

    At first, that seems too high a move to be credible, but his observations was done with a broader context: everyone, including Selvaraju, knows that NCE alone, by itself, won't move AMRN's pps that much.... likely no more than 3-5.... but I think he said given the fact that most of the major IPs from the USPTO that would protect Vascepa for a number of years AFTER the NCE (if given) are moving along, with 889 being the most urgent right now and w/ it being more or less a done deal... that given that reality, that the NCE would move AMRN's pps substantially because, then, INVESTORS would have reason to believe (for now, until they change their minds later) that a buy-out is LIKELY to come to pass "soon"...

    THAT, to me, was what Selvaraju was getting at: that traders would chase the PPS up into the low 20s...

    Of course, when analysts say "it could be soon," it doesn't have to be overnight. It could take a couple months.... and from the time AMRN was approved, in late July, to, oh, say, the end of this year to early next... that could be considered "soon."

 
AMRN
1.85-0.05(-2.63%)11:40 AMEDT