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Amarin Corporation plc Message Board

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  • akanz2 akanz2 Oct 10, 2012 11:47 PM Flag

    Anatomy of a Biotech Sale....

    Thanks for posting again JL
    I don't mind waiting for the launch also , altho I hope it won't be six months away.

    Frankly I'm stunned that so many seem to doubt that Joe Z and Paul Huff can launch Vascepa properly . If I was in either of their positions I would sure want to give it a try.
    I believe they still have up to $250 m cash on hand . They don't need an army of sales reps to begin with ...Cardiologist probably won't meet with reps anyway as NM 10086 has admitted.

    Amarin will be attending conferences like the CardioMetabolic congress conference starting today and their top guys will be presenting directly to many of the important people in the field .
    Amarin is hosting the Friday nite dinner ( educational ) symposium.

    So frankly I see today as a buying opportunity . The doubt about NCE status , going alone etc is being thoroughly vented in the market place. Anything lower then today's low's and I 'll be buying again and I'll wait for the 2013 launch.

    Sentiment: Buy

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    • Bitotechs do not always sell out because they rune out money to do trials. there are many instances where they sell out after getting FDA approvals. It has everything to do with efficiency and Dollars.

      a BP like PFE, MRK or AZN has the infrastructure ( people, know-how, intl. presence, credibility etc.) in place to launch a CV drug quickly and efficiently. It cost them very little to launch a new product using their existing infrastructure.

      However, AMRN has to reinvent the wheel to do so. It takes time and money. And the the cost of all this has to be borne by just ONE product (there is nothing else even in the horizon!). This affects AMRN's bottom line. In a competitive world, time is a valuable commodity too.

      It is not about just launching a product. Any idiot can do that. It is about a launching a product in a timely fashion in the most efficient way so AMRN's bottom line is enhanced. It is the profitability that enhance the stock price not just sales! Some people here do not seem to understand this.


    • Akanz and Epi...

      Thnx for the support...

      Gary, When I mention six months off, I'm considering a few months sales to get a grip on how the medical community is warming up to Vascepa, not the launch date,which should occur in Q1 2013.

      Right now I do not see a sale in the next few months being a good idea for either the buyer or the seller. Although this company is a biotech, it more closely resembles a retailer and its value is going to be tied to revenue generation. Once the drug hits the market both parties will have a better idea of the company's value...which right now would just be a guess for either side.

      Epi..Re the Quiet period....Have no information why this anomaly is taking place...Could be they are in discussion with a partner for marketing and sales with an eye to the future development of a combined statin-EPA drug....Doubt it's NCE related, or a buyout...

      ": ) JL

      Sentiment: Strong Buy

    • Hi Akanz:

      Wait, you can buy this at $7 the day they announce hiring sales people and going alone. That is my guess. It looks like they are getting close to this (language in the 8K) if no one makes an offer within a month to buy AMRN.

      A company can run out $250mm very quickly launching a product and once they start hiring. Huff alone gets $8mm according to MTDS without making a $1 in sales. Interesting way to incentivize sales people!

      Analysts who cover this company know something about biotech. They look at many companies and of course they are not accurate all the time. But this is what they do for living and their reputation/jobs are at stake whenever they make a wrong call. One should not just dismiss them as nothing.

      • 4 Replies to sarathsathkumara
      • I have a hard time believing some analysts when they suggest a $15/share buyout is possible.

      • They're not going it alone. AMRN will either partner or sell the company.

        Sentiment: Strong Buy

      • Sarathsath, I find your posts most astute and appreciate them. I agree with your $7 (i was thinking $8ish) assessment and AMRN has said flat out that they will need to raise additional funds if they go it alone, so, another plunge in the making.
        I truly hope a self launch is not their plan.

      • Hi Sarath
        Thanks for posting . I enjoy reading all informed pts of view especially if they are different from my own.
        As I have stated earlier ...I raised some cash several weeks ago because I did not agree with the " BO this weekend " view often seen on this board .....altho I would be happy to be proven wrong.
        I started investing some of that cash yesterday and will invest more if the PPS heads lower.

        I fully expect them to go it alone initially and agree with JL that the quiet period is more likely to be related to a possible marketing / distribution agreement then the NCE .
        From what I can remember on the options awarded Mgt ...these guys are heavily incentivized to have a higher stock price by mid 2013 ....and I think they will for all the reasons I've mentioned before.

        Sentiment: Buy

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