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Amarin Corporation plc Message Board

  • nm10066 nm10066 Oct 19, 2012 11:56 AM Flag


    Too late for a deal this year, maybe no decision on NCE this year, at least not ahead of Anchor patents, that's the key, if I'm right, the time to start buying back in is after these patents on Anchor are issued. Joe Z's best price comes after Anchor NDA. Now, will he pospone the launch? Could be, if so; jump in with both feet. That's a dead give away he has made a decision to sell.

    Sentiment: Sell

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    • Anchor result is pretty well known, the actual NDA adds nothing to the value. The only way to add additional value by Anchor is to get the label and see what sales are after 6 months to a year.

      If we go into Nov 12 week with no decision news then I bet it is a go it alone. So IMO Joe is not waiting but takes two to tango. If he plays this with the proper leverage he will push it to Nov 12 week and make the sale then if there are reasonable offers. After that date you get either another NCE delay, or an NCE announcement and then the need to start hiring a sales force. His energy will need to move away from BO to launch.

      But no need to conclude a deal before them, put the pressure on any companies interested, work them off each other, let them think the hiring deadline is approaching, let them think you are not waiting for NCE news now and thus let them think another company might scoop in before you. To maximize the price you need to do all that, he needs to act as if he is going back and forth with several companies so he needs to take it up to the week of the 12th regardless of what offers he has now just to maximize any price.

      I believe you can sell puts or calls up until the Nov 5 week with the chance of any stock moving news being slim. If nothing by Nov 12 opening I'd get conservative and play for go it alone. Of course that is OB week so they get NCE the end of that week with no news before everything changes in that regard but you also run the risk of a delay again. Nov 12 week very risky if no news before then.

      My read is we don't get to that date if there is a BO deal to get done so I'm playing it as no real major surprise news before week of 5th and no major direction news until at least Nov 9. If Joe knows how to negotiate we should not see any direction news until then and I believe he knows what he is doing.

      People need to remember he was waiting on NCE news to get down to real negotiations and now per conversation with analysts they are not, so only been a few weeks at this point.

      • 1 Reply to ktsven
      • Ktsven--there won't be any decision on NCE until those patent anchor issues are resolved. Think about it, is there any other reason why the FDA sits on their but with no decision this late in the game. and yes, the Anchor NDA is important. When they see the NDA then Amarin has something to sell. With a 5 billion dollar market potential hanging on the balance, you can bet Big Pharma wants to see the NDA in writing and Joe Z wants the vlue for that NDA. He won't sell until this thing goes down and and no company is going to give him what it is worth until they see it in writing. Nobody is going to pay mega bucks for something until they see it in writing.

    • come on tell the truth ya know u chit your pants when the stock price went ballistic yesterday...and thats how it will be, news out of the blue as amrn gaps way higher, those on the sidelines will only be wishing, those with the balls to hold will be the winners. if you want to be all out and your hunch is no deal, no nce this year maybe your right, no one here knows, but no way after all this time will i be left on the sidelines should something major be announced.

      Sentiment: Strong Buy

    • Joe Z does not make a decision to "SELL".

      Somone must make a decision to BUY.

      And NO one will buy AMRN.

1.29+0.03(+2.38%)Nov 28 1:00 PMEST

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