AstraZeneca's new boss Pascal Soriot didn’t mess about when on his first day in the job he announced the suspension of the drugs group’s £2.8bn share buy-back programme.
Shareholders were obviously miffed, but analysts took it as a definite sign that he wanted to save the cash for earnings enhancing acquisitions. Soriot recently spent up to £169m on the rights to an experimental kidney drug, but rumours now suggest he has something much bigger up his sleeve.
AZ’s shares shed 38p to 2900p ahead of tomorrow’s third-quarter trading statement.
The fall was accompanied by speculation Soriot is planning to launch a cash bid for US biopharmaceutical group Amarin, whose shares moved against the trend on Wall Street yesterday with an early gain to $11.61.
AstraZeneca, along with other larger pharmaceutical companies such as Merck, Pfizer, Abbott and Eli Lilly, would apparently love to get their hands on Amarin for Vascepa, a prescription medicine which helps with the treatment for cardiovascular disease. It is the group’s first FDA approval product.
US analysts are of the opinion that Amarin’s days of independence are numbered.
They reckon that Amarin now stands at the crossroads and appears to be waiting for a large pharmaceutical company, with a substantial cardiovascular or diabetes sales force, to come and swallow it whole.
William Tanner, analyst at Lazard Capital Markets, currently has a target price of $26 on Amarin as has Canaccord Genuity’s Ritu Baral. What does that tell you?
Sentiment: Strong Buy
Lazard analyst Bill Tanner was quoted.
Most importantly--Lazard was Amarin's financial advisor according to Sunday Times article in April,2011.
Now Bill Tanner is NOT financial advisor--but Lazard's financial advisor listens to Bill Tanner and has access to his Most likely Sales estimates.
Goldman Sachs was financial advisor for Amylin.They used management Sales estimates for next 5 years,but they did their own analysis--to convince Bristol Myers to pay over 30$.SEC document shows that the bid was stuck at 28$. Finally GS brought AZN into the deal and got price of 31$/share.
This is why I think price will be higher than 26$--but not much more.
As far as final successful bidder- I think Pfizer can quickly market Vascepa as can Glaxo.That's why I think PFE,GSK the finalists.
Also I believe-- rumors turn out to be true in this M&A business as they are leaked as rumors.
Samething happened with Amylin in March,2012--but here source gave name and bid in Feb.2012. It was 100% correct(SEC filings in July,2012 by Amylin).
I love that statement; "Specualtion has it," Where I work, we also have a rumor mill the "Grapevine" that's alive and well. Whenever we hear a good one, it usually transpires a few days later.... no longer than a week at the most. Of course we knew several weeks ago that Astra-Zeneca had stopped it's share buy back. Someone on this board was on top of that one as well. Was that you Kaylawa? Good work, thanks for the digging...... GLTA.
One CRITICAL piece of that article that must be pointed out: the author referred to an "cash bid." That's pretty specific. He knows something.
He could have just said s speculation on a "bid." Saying "cash bid" shows he has a source and is tipping his hand.
GLTAA (ALMOST "All".... I refuse to wish luck to paid idiots. Never ONCE did we see a Short come in with a rational, well-documented case why this stock was a Sell. I enjoy reading those types of posts, as they are usually VERY informative. All we got on here were HEADLINES - that couldn't be backed up: pathetic)
Sentiment: Strong Buy
My fellow WEALTHY people (both current and about to be....)
This is more than just the first smokin' gun, this is the ZAPRUDER FILM + OJ's glove behind the coach-house! Expect more articles like this. There's blood in the water.
Amarin is "officially" in play, publicly.
The author of this is trying to tell you he knows something. He WANTS to crow: "I told you so." He has sources. It's obvious...
Rather than bad-mouth all the bashers I just want to take this time to say THANK YOU for all the money you've been dumping into my account for the past 18 months and THANK YOU for the BIG-DUMP you are about to take into my account, when we finally put this thing to bed in a few weeks!
Hard to believe this is going to happen...after all, dear bashers, didn't your intense DD say that every doctor on the planet hates this drug and that every firm downgraded it to a few pennies?
I would cry all the way to the bank, but not I'll let my chauffeur do it as he;s driving to the bank to deposit my 7-figure check.
I may just name my next 60 ft. cruiser: BASHERS!!
Sentiment: Strong Buy
There are no "speculations" about this, only the same cra*p that some sell-side pumpers tried to push some months ago (and the PPS moved on that also, this being a ponzi/bolier stock) and it has probably been re-posted today by some of the pumpers here on twitter and UK boards and so on.
Get real, no one will buy Amarin, you don't need AMRN to sell pure EPA.
Wow .... Thanks Kayla
Purely from a patients pt of view --- a tie up with AZN would dominate the mixed dyslipidemia market --- at least in terms of the best meds to take to treat the condition .
AZN's Crestor is the strongest LDL cholesterol lowering drug ---but like all statin drugs , does not do much for lowering high Triglycerides .
Combine that with Vascepa --- even if they are just packaged as a combo --- and you have the best LDL lowering drug with the best ( overall ) TG lowering drug .
I'm sure there would be economies of scale etc in co marketing /distributing both products together .
You would think it would drive Pfizer crazy ---the idea that AZN could buy or form an alliance with Amarin.