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Amarin Corporation plc Message Board

  • finance1229 finance1229 Oct 26, 2012 8:05 PM Flag

    BO discussions almost 100% certain

    If not, why hasn't the company announce GIA and starting building sales staff?
    No other reason to waste time..

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    • Astra Zeneca CEO said in Conference call on Oct.25,2012-- 25 days in office.
      1) Patents Cliff is taking toll on our numbers-Sales/profits already this year.Even Crestor Generic is hurting Canadian Sales.
      2) Flexible/Open to Acquisitions. AZN could be looking at Amarin seriously as this is the best way to boost sales in 2013. Geoff Foster of DailyMail News article is real.
      3) R&D productivity is his immediate focus.He is not going to compete on "Who spends most"?
      4) Diabeties drug acquired from Amylin in Aug.2012--started hiring sales force in USA(It could be Bristol Myers),but not yet in Europe. Point to be noted-- Acquired in July,2012-- Not hired so far in Europe and even in USA it has taken 3 months. It is Control issue legally. Legally BMY or AZN gets control in 3 months after formal agreement.
      This means even if AZN signs an agreement in next 30-60 days,they will NOT hire Sales force for 120-150 days-- 4 to 5 months. So Amarin will have to hire Sales force itself to launch in Jan.2013. Yes--they may hire less or those hired could merge with the ACQUIRER's Sales force as happens in any Merger.
      If you read Amylin's filings with SEC in July,2012 after signing an agreement.
      They stated in April 19,2012--
      " The company Board determined that a private process of soliciting interest was preferable to public auction--because the launch of BYDUREON was in early stages and it was IMPORTANT that the Company's Sales remained focused on the launch and not be DISTRACTED by a Public process for selling the company". Source: SEC filings -July 10,2012 under Background of Offer.

      Sentiment: Buy

    • Here's my 2 cents - On August 7th Joe Z said this will be a very exciting 60-90 days, that takes us to 11/7 give or take. When Asked on the conference call IF they were to GIA when they would start hiring... Joe's answer was IF we got that far it would be late October... They then went into quiet period. NO COMPANY goes into a quiet period just for the hell of it- Normal buyout takes 60-90 days to firm up term sheets, LOI's and get through due diligence. I work for a company in an unrelated field and we are being acquired. We have been in quiet period for almost 3 months and we expect the announcement literally any day so all along I have felt strongly that it's the same situation for AMRN.

      A few weeks back, I think it was Bloomberg that asked if AMRN was starting to hire yet (or something to that effect) and the answer was IF they were to go it alone it would be late November now AND stated that discussions are continuing despite NCE delays. Bottomline in reading through tea leaves - IF they were planning to GIA they would have started hiring in October, they may be running a bit behind due to NCE delays or just normal biusiness delays but at NO POINT did it sound like they want to or plan to go it alone.

      From everything I see, smell and hear- I believe they are in final stages of buyout by now. We're all ansy on the no news myself included but I've stopped trading AMRN and will hold because I firmly believe the news can come at any time. IF I were Joe I would want to wrap this up BEFORE the next NCE date just in case it gets denied. I've said it before and will say it again, I believe it will be a two step offer... x- without NCE and x- with NCE. We have an approved drug that every one and their brother agrees that Big Pharma wants and it needs to get to market.

      ALL of that said, IF I am dead wrong and they ended up going it alone, which I DO NOT expect... we could actually make substantially more on the upside. Others have done the math and the value in a year or two could be $75 pps or more. NONE of us including myself are patient as true investing left the building in 08 and we want the buyout now. I believe that Big Pharma have already stepped up to the plate. I believe the deal is done or so close to done that Joe KNOWS there 'ain't' no way he's hiring end of November and the deal will be completed before then. I wish I knew when the BO will come and I seriously believe it could be any day and certainly before the end of November as everyone wants to get this drug to market in Q1.

      Sentiment: Strong Buy

      • 7 Replies to trading4more
      • good post. Post like this give me a little more courage to hold on for big pay day. I trust in my dd and so everyone should trust their and not listen to the misinform basher on this message board.
        Xmas gonna be great this yr for longs.

        Sentiment: Strong Buy

      • I think the main fly in the ointment is Joe though NCE would be decided and likely granted by the October OB. So I think his 60-90 days was based on that assumption.

        Now it's a question of the valued to BO less NCE. If NCE was granted in October then the BO would have been more certain since I think they can get more interested parties at a higher price with NCE.

        Negotiations are ALL about leverage. Joe has some leverage now, would have more with NCE in back pocket. BP has some leverage knowing AMRN would need to spend alot of money, likely dilute some to launch properly.

        A mid-November cut-off is pretty real to me, otherwise with only 60 days to launch and only several months to Anchor added to the label if thye don't sell by mid-November I think it'll be another year if they ever sell.

        I think per your post BO was the #1 option and would think if what Joe is asking for and what BP is talking about offering are no where near each other they would start the launch.

        Hopefully "Say it Ain't So, Joe" stays an historical reference and we get the 25+BO, otherwise we got a year to wait to try and reach the 20 range and who knows what the world economy will do the next year and subsequently the stock market. With such uncertainty I'd rather have the money in hand today. Hope Joe feels the same.

      • nov 15 is the drop dead date for reporting per sec; 45 days after q close, which runs up to the next date for a ruling
        i would expect anything to happen in the next 2 weeks; they longer they delay scheduling the report/call, the better it is for longs as it indicates they very well are in talks

        good post trading4

        Sentiment: Strong Buy

      • BP is not going to let billions and billions in revenue, plus all the patents and broad label ( which is just a matter of time) go by the wayside while Vascepa spreads like wildfire and they are forced to b/o AMRN at a massive premium.

      • Kvsten trading4more and finance1229 are you all the same or just the same style of writing?

      • Agreed

      • trading4more, thanks for your great insight. Your analysis really makes sense.

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