November 19 and Dec 17. NCE 60-40 yes. BO 90% probable. I have owned this stock and been following it for a long time. I plan to double my holdings next week or so leading up to orange book update by the FDA.. That slip of info by Dr Goldenberg(saying that FDA has decided yes to NCE) more important than many realize imo.
Another soothsayer. The idea that the company has not been sold because of the NCE issue is merely conjecture. IMO the NCE (FDA situation) is a minor issue, and is not holding AMRN up.. The plan is to launch the drug themselves. This might be a problem with many new drugs, but Vascepa is going to market with little or no real competition, and a ton of interest on the part of clinicians...We shall see if this is the scenario that plays out..JMHO, and I could be wrong...They may indeed decide to sell the company, but not likely for a year or so..
LOL...please understand I realize this is not the message you impetuous types want to hear, but I am as bullish on this company as any of you...The big payoff will be in the long run, not in the chump change you will see in a premature buyout...If the price drops short term (as it probably will) I will be buying every share I can afford...
": ) JL
Sentiment: Strong Buy
The last several years have been like watching one of your kids grow up. First steps, false starts, and successes. You're always routing for them even as they drive you a little **nuts** in those teenage years. The day comes when they may go off to college under the power of their own wings (GIA) .......(and of course your checkbook). You worry about them, how they'll do and wait impatiently for those semester grades to post (earnings) knowing that the better they do the greater their potential (BO etc.). And then the day comes..........and you get to reminisce over a great wine about the struggles and brag to your friends about what a good kid they've become ( what a great investment you made!).
Sentiment: Strong Buy
Just playing a little devils advocate with you. My thinking is NCE is only important to Amarin if they are GIA so they won't need to worry about legal costs an issues for five years, but if they are happy with the three years and then expect to get BO from BP I think then NCE is a non issue for them on the GIA strategy.
Sentiment: Strong Buy
There is a reason why we have seen the SAME commercial on the same household products, for decades: companies know when they stop advertising, the revenues from those products --- however "staple" they are in American households --- take a substantial dive.
The marketing scenario is the same for even good drug molecules, whether Lovaza or Vascepa.
Tiny start-up RELIANT would not have been able to promote Lovaza, by Reliant itself, to be the $1B a year molecule it's been the last a couple years. GSK has the connection, influence, sales teams, and resources to promote it.
VASCEPA --- taking all the minuses and pluses from both investors and analysts as well as from the various studies --- is broadly speaking superior to LOVAZA, even in just the first approved regime, "Marine."
If "Anchor" --- for the roughly 10 times larger population, 200-500 TG range, a range which LOVAZA was being TURNED DOWN by the FDA when GSK applied for it --- shouldalso pass FDA inspection (and chances of it doing so is good, since the FDA is aware of its STATS as the agency undertake to approve MARINE)..... VASCEPA is instantly about 10 times the LOVAZA market indication... so there is NO LOGIC --- scientific or marketing logic --- whatsoever why ANY LARGE pharmaceutical (& most are in deed of URGENT revenue and profit generating drug MOLECULES) would be saying to itself right now:
"Let's just hold on for ONE YEAR, at least, to see how tiny hand-to-mouth AMRN is marketing VASCEPA --- competing against how giant GSK's marketing its $1B a year LOVAZA's --- to see if it is worth our time to buy VASCEPA.
First of all, THAT is not a very intelligent rationale in and of itself, even if AMRN is awaiting to hear from just ONE or TWO possible giant companies.
But more importantly, there are about 3-5 other giant companies --- in addition to GSK itself, as a potential buyer --- who are LIKELY also looking at VASCEPA, a "fish oil" molecule that more than half a dozen of REPUTABLE STUDIES in the last year alone, ON AVERAGE, saying is positive for a host of ailments as well as symptoms of ailments...
Point is, if this "fish oil" molecule we are talking about --- juxtaposing with/against GSK's already proven sister "fish oil" molecule in Lovaza --- is as good a PRODUCT as most of us think it is, there is absolutely NO WAY, no logic, no marketing reason why a giant company who wants it would say, again, "Let's just wait for one year, to see how tiny AMRN is doing in the TG markets --- versus how giant GSK continues to do, with LOVAZA --- before we buy it."
So why would a big pharma NOT have bought AMRN alreaady, BP has access to legal resources and expertise AMRN can only dream about and even amateurs understand that NCE for EPA-E is impossible.
So BP of course have known for a long time that there will be no NCE for Vascepa..
So if you are mad/dumb enough to believe that BP actually are interested in AMRN, what is holding BP back?
And if Vascepa's potential are so large like the bulls/pumpers/suckers believe, why on earth would a NCE really make a difference in the grand scheme of things, anyone REALLY think BP will hand out billions with NCE as the only barrier to entry??
And what leverage does AMRN have with BP now?
Heeeey we have no NCE, we have not built sales or marketing, we have no large scale approved API supply, we're going against GSK from next year and there will be generic Lovaza in two years, SURELY the odds of us succeeding on our own are very good, yes mister BP executive??
Sentiment: Strong Sell
Thanks all. One of the more intelligent posts we've seen in awhile from everyone (except heidiboob). Philosophically I agree with Doc. The only thing I would add is this: IF a buyout is being considered, the BP may want to have NCE decision AND Anchor APPROVAL - not just sNDA - decided - one way or the other - in order to justify paying the billions that Amarin no doubt feels it's worth. That'll take time. What it comes down to is this: AMRN has to hit the ground running - which I think it will. We'll need to see at least semi-strong sales right off the bat. Keep in mind "tiny" Reliant had built Lovaza into a ~$400 million annual sales company when it was bought by GSK BUT it was already at the sales stage, not at product launch
Joe was a little off in his timing, but I think the exciting period he was talking about starts right now.
Sentiment: Strong Buy
I think decision will happen before OB update, I think we will know by end of next week which way they will go, I'm 70% expecting BO but prepared for not with money on the side to buy lower if GIA happens. BUT in the BO most logical option camp and with 3Q earnings needed by the 9th expect they want to have to update on direction by then and things should be far enough along to have 90% decision made
Buyout will happen imo. For many reasons which have been discussed many times on this board and elsewhere. AMRN wants to wait until NCE decision, which the market's majority have decided most likely will be no.. AMRN believes otherwise, well , better than 50% chance anyway. AMRN could be leaving as much as $4 on the table by giving in now to any offering. Plus, they do not want to influence the FDA decision in any way. If the FDA votes no we are probalby guessing around $18 to $22 buyout. If yes, $22 to $26. Longs will have to be patient for a while longer, imo, and maybe suffer a bit longer. But even at $18, the profit would be substantial for any current buyers of the stock.