Although I'm thrilled because somebody "might know something," it pains me that whomever this person (entity) is will never be investigated - and may very well be trading on inside information. I've been playing the market 30 years and am amazed at how many times there are plays like this, right before a big move.
At least AMRN is in BO talks, so there's an air of plausibility. However, how many times do you see a move like this (usually a Short option position) when there is no reason to suspect anything wrong and WHAM, some negative announcement comes out of the blue.
The game is rigged and it's pathetic. The best you can do is do your own DD and get in/out when you have a decent profit. Also, try to follow what the "rigged" people and MM's are doing.
I agree, I'm sure it happens but also 20K to a hedge fund that equals a pittance and if a $30 BO, which is plausible, it's 1 million in return. Good risk/reward. Sherlock Holmes would read the info and say BO is most likely, evidence is pretty heavy toward a BO, only concern is pricing, so hard to say that's inside info or just reading tea leaves and taking a calculated risk.
But if someone knows something more, with so much market volume, really hard to pin down which trades are related to inside knowledge though, I agree, likely happens at least occasionally, especially in the options market.