First, do you guys think a BO is possible? If so, then which BPs, for how much, and when? I am thinking Astrazeneca, Pfizer, GSK, and maybe Merck. I would say around $26-30. It just doesn't make sense to go alone. Too much effort and Joe has been trying to sell this company for a year and a half now. Why stop trying to now? Plus, we know that AZN is submitting a cash bid.
Daily Mail reporter Geoff Foster has a good track record of M&A rumors turning out to be true.He wrote about GSK buying HGSI months before first bid officially announced.
BO is in works--but price is usually a long drag-out process.
First, remember we do not know much. That Daily Mail article was very speculative and vague, so AZN making a cash bid? Who knows, perhaps, or maybe that was just another card being played in this chess.
What we know are the priorities that Joe Z established for the Vascepa strategy: Buyout, Partnership ou GIA, from that order of preference. Buyout is the best for us, but not the easiest one. Partnership, there's a looker. In the event of a no BO, partnership within this market would be very welcome by BP. It is the most cautious strategy and the less financialy demanding. Think if you were a BP company would you refuse a partnership for Vascepa? I wouldn't, in fact i would try to get my hands on it by all means! And being the second most preferable course of action for the Amarin board, i would guess that's what we are going to see for now. If the sales present good numbers, then most likely the BP partner will try to bid for Amarin.
A partnership suits me just fine and meets the valuation we need for Amarin's stock. We can easily see the stock reach up to $18 in case of a partnership... I like that scenario!
IN the last CC, I think it was the last one, Joe stated Partnership was the least likely scenario because BP would likely want AMRN to give up control and Joe was not interested in giving up control, especially since they have no other drugs in a pipeline so i think your order is off.
Let's vote, my 65,000 shares say no sale under $50.
World statin market $30 Billion, Anchor indication $10 Billion sales potential, JELIS trial showed EPA reduced cardiac events in Japanese Women, Patents for 96% EPA until 2030, off label uses for Depression, Autism, ADHD, IBD....
It would be plain stupid to let Amarin go at this point in the game for so cheap.
Sentiment: Strong Buy
He never said that, he was quoted about a BO that if they were offering 15 per share, not interested but 30, 40, 50, 100 he'd be interested. NEVER EVER said he would not take less than 30. IF ANYTHING I think you can gleam from his quote he would have started discussions on his end at 30 which, again, lines up with a mid 20's BO.
If Omthera results the other day were better the stock would be below 10, what if Krill oil Phase 2/3 data comes out and is better than Vascepa in 6 months, what if REDUCE IT does NOT show the same results as JELIS, what if they do not get NCE, generics are able to work around the patents and have a generic in 2017, lots of scenarios going forward where AMRN GIA approach never reaches $30 or higher a share.
Why would you have a blockbuster drug and not start launching until 7-8 months after approval unless BO is #1 option? 4-5 billion is the area most BP want to spend on a BO, most BP is wary of spending larger than that, no BP is going to spend much more than that for a drug with no sales yet Joe still says acquisition is 1 of the options and hiring sales force is delayed so clearly no other conclusion can be drawn other than Joe is interested in talking in that range.
$30 per share in the next month plus is the absolute highest possible BO number, to think otherwise is drinking way too much Vascepa Kool Aid. Since Joe is still talking he obviously is willing to make a deal from 25-30 otherwise it would be pointless for him to keep saying an acquisition is possible and would be dumb to keep delaying a sales force.
Still thInk Pfizer is the likely BO or partner after Lipitor was chosen as the combo choice. I do not think this choice was made without consideration that this would improve the liklihood of a strategic partnership or buyout by Pfizer. Would think discussions with Pfizer have been ongoing. Should AZN also have a strong interest as implied it opens the door higher bids for Amarin to negotiate.
The longer this takes the less they will receive in a buyout. If this drags out into next year and congress and the president don't hammer out a deal before the fiscal cliff all stocks are doomed. I hope a buyout happens real soon so I can exit the market before year end.