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Amarin Corporation plc Message Board

  • outerlimits777 outerlimits777 Nov 8, 2012 8:15 PM Flag

    Joe Z just gave you the LOWER bound pps in a B/O, IF you listened closely.

    "You've got this incredibly valuable asset that we're sitting on right now. You got pharma companies out there spending 3-5 Billion dollars a year on R&D, and that's launching one drug, so I think people get how special this is..."

    There it is ladies and gentlemen... 3-5 Billion.

    Assuming,

    1) Vascepa is NO ORDINARY DRUG from the standpoint of Market Potential (already up to 40m, even though Anchor label hasn't been approved)

    2) Vascepa is NO ORDINARY DRUG from the standpoint of Efficacy vs Side Effect profile (Marine was basically flawless from a SE perspective, and Anchor was VIRTUALLY AS GOOD)

    3) Vascepa is NO ORDINARY DRUG from the perspective of market exclusivity (patents good till 2030+, but assuming settlement with generic firms gives exclusivity till 2027 there's still a little problem call API availability that'll box out the generics, effectively extending Vascepa exclusivity a bit more)

    4) Vascepa is NO ORDINARY DRUG with respect to a potential indication coming down the road, and for which there is REAL, QUALITY SCIENCE already out there that is HIGH SUGGESTIVE, that would include 1/3 (yes that's right!!!) 1/3 of the USA population.

    Ok, Vascepa is CLEARY NO ORDINARY DRUG. So what does that mean in dollars and cents?

    --- 3-5 Billion as stated by Joe, in the context above.

    --- Another 1-2 Billion to be PAINFULLY conservative.

    ---4-7 Billion B/O for Amarin (with upside surprise to 10B+ if Contingent Value rights are negotiated)

    So we're talking $23-$40, with an upside surprise of 50+ with CVRs.

    AND, based on his previous statements... $30 is likely the ABSOLUTE MINIMUM.

    Therefore,

    ***$30-$40, with $50+ potential, and that could happened BY THE END OF THE MONTH***

    Good luck to all.
    Outer

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

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