Let me begin by saying I am glad to see nm finally looking like he is getting it...although I do think being out of the stock is risky...
JMHO....I would like to begin at the end of the CC on JZ's closing remarks...He was fairly gushing over Vascepa in telling us what a special asset it was...These remarks did not strike me as those of a man in any hurry to depart from his beloved, certainly not for "chump change".
He repeated stated the NCE was all but an after thought not only in AMRN's eyes, but in the eyes of the Pharma's they have discussed future plans with. He reiterated the patents, combined with trade secrets and API sourcing exclusivity agreements were the key barriers to entry...The NCE he stated was more of an overhanging issue which created some uncertainty, but went as far as saying the best resolution would be the FDA awards the NCE, the second best the FDA withholds the the NCE , the worst would be the FDA remains undecided..
He explained clearly and convincingly that gathering a sales force of 200-300 reps later this month, or even in Dec in the event the company was not sold or in a partnership, would not play a Q1 2013 launch as there are some 40,000 unemployed drug reps, 3000 of which are CVD savy, know the doctors in their regions and understand how Vascepa works...(I might add, though he did not mention it, So do the doctors). AMRN already has these guys resumes and can cherry pick them. Under these circumstances...hiring the sales force two or three months before launch seems like a waste of money..
After roasting the EPA/DHA drugs...he disclosed AMRN has three API suppliers lined up and a fourth about to come on board...He reiterated AMRN was confident it had all the tools and knowledge to launch and expand the MARINE indication by themselves. At that point he implied they would need help expanding to meet ANCHOR.
So what does this mean? IMO it is likely AMRN plans to launch and develop MARINE...JZ feels, and I agree, Vascepa will be a blockbuster based soley on the MARINE indication. Meantime they will work to get the sNDA dyslipidemia indication. This should be a rubber stamp.By that time AMRN should be trading in the thirties based on MARINE earnings....With the huge ANCHOR indication ready to go there could be a bidding war not seen since the Michael Milken, Ivan Boesky corporate raider days...
All you guys out there who want to see a double on your money...be patient, hold on to your tickets...You could be looking at one of those deals you can brag to your grandkids about...
": ) JL
Sentiment: Strong Buy
Do you guys expect the stock to fall further on Monday from $9.70 and by how much? It seemed to open up about $9.50 range and didn't rally much. That seems to indicate there is not much demand now and there may be a sell-off this coming week for tax purposes.
JL VERY NICE SUMMARY
I believe we need to hear more from Joe...as it certainly does sound positive and it appears he is on top of his game.
I have been researching the patents and frankly there will have to be so many challenges just to know how to make it the correct way. They are attempting to cover all bases here and for the long term future. Right now Amarin is the Cream of the Crop,not just by a little, but they are killing it.
I know I have been pessimistic as it is in my nature and forces me to do more DD and keep digging. I believe that there are talks indeed. I strongly believe Pfizer is in first place so far. There may be AZ talks also, but unless they make an offer that Joe cannot refuse I believe Pfizer is the one. GSK, is a distant third and I believe they would really have put a hot offer for Joe to accept.
He indicated that it could take some time; which I think we all knew that a BO or partnership will not be announced until a true decision is made on NCE and they receive more of their patents applied for. I don't believe that any party is in a hurry now and Joe wants time to communicate everything that is beneficial.
Time Line: I surmise by end of December we will begin to hear rumors and a lot will depend upon more patents granted. That said: J did indicate that it is going to be very difficult to for generics to even consider the battle once they have studied the patents.
All in All Summary: I believe this is a Strong Buy and we should take advantage of these prices and add some more. I am.
Thanks for your post. The main point you made almost in the Begining is what I believe and that is that Joe Z. will not depart from his "beloved" unless he gets a good price. All signs (JMHO) though point to his desire and willingness to sell so I "think" that's where this is headed sooner or later.
I just don't see the Go it Alone option being a very high probability and even if so I doubt they will go it alone for very long (I think you mentioned this possibility in an earlier post).
Sentiment: Strong Buy
The only thing I am hoping/waiting for in the short-term is a decision on NCE, regardless of the outcome. We need to get this company going in a direction investors are aware of, regardless if they like it, so that there are at least results we can quantify going forward.
Let's hope the FDA makes a decision and we know the path by Thanksgiving.
Pfizer's MO has been partnering, followed by a takeout when the true size of the market becomes apparent. I think we will see that here....unless BP shows them the money. As I mentioned previously, my contacts in business development think JZ is extremely shrewd. He is not known for leaving money on the table....Personally, I like a BP stock for stock buyout, then I can participate in the rise of the stock price in whatever BP buys them due to rising earnings AND a good dividend.
I think everyone agrees, and the press release even mentioned it, that the final decision hinges on NCE resolution. That's a fact we can take to the bank, not conjecture.
With that, analyzing NCE, how does it effect the 3 options?
-BO-Clearly has some bearing on a BO price, cannot question the effect on BO
-Partner-Could have an effect on this as well, though Joe made it clear any partnership leaves AMRN in control, would need to be a "special' partnership which makes this option the least likely anyways
-GIA-Do they need NCE to launch---no, do they need NCE to hire sales reps---no, NCE has zero effect on the ability to GIA
It is possible that GIA may be more LIKELY to happen depending on NCE answer-hard to tell but if Joe was thinking GIA was the #1 option then NCE would not be a determining factor in decision, it would not be in the decision at all.
Does not mean they won't go it alone depending on offers after NCE but there is no logical way to reconcile NCE Decision=Direction decision and arrive at Joe's #1 path is GIA.
A cogent summary JL - Thanks
As someone who primary job relys on effective negotiation strategies , Joe has to be ready to execute on a GIA - in fact not to do so will erode the valuation
I've seen thsi time and again over my career, you can posture all you want but nothing is more powerful than saying #$%$" and walking from the table
If Joe does not hire a SF if NCE denied he is in the position of begging for a BO - and we all know how that story ends.
He knows what he has to do, this guy is a seasnoned and accomplished CEO
sit back and watch the pro operate
Sentiment: Strong Buy
Well said....The best operational definition of intelligence is to keep as many of your options open for as long as possible. It makes absolutely no sense for JZ to take any of these options off the table. He knows there are funds as well as retailers which are in for the buyout, and taking it off the table or downplaying it would materially effect the PPS at least for a time...
IMHO, just an opinion, I do not think he wants to sell. Go back and look at his comments late in the CC when talking to the analysts...over and over what a " very, very special opportunity this is....He knows the potential of this drug is way above the proposed offers...He is fighting against the impatience of the market...When you consider the dyslipidemia and the statin-EPA combo (the reason why AMRN will partner for the ANCHOR....The potential is mind boggling...
": ) JL
Sentiment: Strong Buy
"Still a man hears what he wants to hear and disregards the rest"
The Boxer; Simon and Garfunkel
Carey...Perhaps with more time in the market you will begin understand that the market is a weighing instrument, and not a voting instrument...The majority are almost always wrong. Anyway this is like a horse race in that we are going to get to see the results...In a month or less we should know whether Vascepa will be allowed the NCE exclusion or not and then according to the Carey 495 we will see a quick buyout...Anything's possible. IMO they wont sell at least until the ANCHOR launch is pending..ie a year from now, and then it may not happen..
I have been confronting posters on this board since Dec 2010 about the "upcoming buyout" and everyone of them was as confident in their opinion as you and your 494 others...Maybe you will be the one to be right...
": ) JL
Sentiment: Strong Buy
I think adding before NCE decision is fruitless, there will be a drop if no NCE and cen get in lower, if they get NCE will jump but a $25+ BO is all but guranteed so you can still get in on the jump to 15 on NCE.
I'm not sold that a BO happens as quickly with NCE, Joe was clearly saying patents are #1 and indicated with BP, he thinks, feels that way per excerpt
"I think everyone were talking to really gets it, it's about the patents. But like anything else, you go into a situation where your building consensus in a big company, some of these organizations have different risk profiles and although I want to believe that everyone believes that it's all about the patents, this is or a potential fear that what happens if there's a no answer."
Everyon gets its about the patents BUT obviously leaves questions as to no NCE and what that means.
If they announce a delay next week on NCE again then no BO until January so stock will drop with sales force hire etc... so HOPE that FDA finally decides this week. Joe made it clear they are not the reason for the delay, they would rather have a no than another delay. Will keep some money on the side awaiting NCE, as 100% clear to me no BO happens before NCE decision
Jl, ref your statement over joe gushing over v. I recall years ago being a Dndn holder and CEO mitch gold was crying on television talking about the first prostate cancer drug provenge approved and he was not going to sell bc people needed this new drug and he wanted to see that it happened. Now look at Dndn..and mitch gold is no longer the ceo. another ex. Vvus going it alone now they are having trouble with there launch, and they planned going it alone from the get go..and yes both of these example are different animals but I also recall posting on Vvus board about going alone is not a good idea and ref. dndn, even avnr,somx.. So my take is joe/amrn will be sold