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Amarin Corporation plc Message Board

  • homebuilder_watcher homebuilder_watcher Nov 9, 2012 10:39 AM Flag

    Analysts still very bullish..comments today

    We believe the AMRN story near-term remains driven by a key strategic decision
    on whether to sell company, partner Vascepa, or launch the drug itself. We
    expect this decision to be made in late November. We remain bullish on longterm
    prospects even with self-commercialization and see long-term value in the
    patent estate with potential stock upside on ANCHOR patent issuances.
    PT remains $28 ($27 AMR101+$1 cash). Risks: clinical, regulatory, IP, competitive.

    Leerink Swann:
    AMRN is actively considering three potential strategic paths:
    acquisition, strategic collaboration, or self collab w/wout 3rd party
    support. Management noted that uncertainty on whether the FDA will
    grant Vascepa new chemical entity (NCE) designation has presented
    a challenge in discussions, although interested parties appreciate the
    protection afforded by a growing patent estate including 8 issued or
    allowed patents (3 composition, 5 method of use). AMRN has requested
    that FDA make a timely determination, and believes that there are strong
    arguments for 5-yr reg exclusivity under Hatch Waxman legislation but
    cannot make assurances that the FDA will agree.
    • Language in the 10-Q suggests that an FDA decision is imminent;
    we believe it could potentially come late next week, in keeping with the
    FDA's policy to update the Orange Book by the end of the second full
    week of each month.
    We estimate a $27 per share fair value for AMRN in 12 months via discounted cash flow (DCF)
    analysis, representing a $4.5bn enterprise value on a fully diluted basis including all outstanding
    warrants. Our valuation may be conservative since AMR101 could obtain up to five years
    additional Hatch-Waxman exclusivity beyond 2021 patent expiration and is building a patent
    portfolio with IP protection beyond 2030.

    Investment recommendation
    Reiterate BUY, $26 target; maintain positive view on Vascepa approval
    and commercial, partnering potential. We continue to expect BD talks to
    intensify and Vascepa to receive NCE (five-year exclusivity). Our $26
    target is based on a sum-of-the-parts analysis, combining a DCF of high
    triglyceride sales and pNPV of mixed dyslipidemia sales.

    JP Morgan:
    Amarin continues to progress toward an ultimate strategic decision and the company
    reiterated many of the themes discussed since Vascepa approval in late July. While we
    believe an exclusivity determination has little impact on the overall valuation of the
    franchise, a conclusion would free Amarin to finalize its strategic planning and launch
    of the product. We remain OW on AMRN shares given our view that Amarin can
    realize significant value for the Vascepa franchise under any of the company's three
    proposed scenarios (although clearly on different timeframes).
    Using a DCF analysis on our assumptions that Amarin uses a "go it alone" strategy in
    commercializing Vascepa, we see significant upside from current valuation.
    Additionally, if Amarin decides to partner the product or sell the company entirely,
    we expect additional upside from our valuation analysis.
    Maintain Dec-13 price target of $24. Our discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis
    leads us to a valuation of roughly $34/share for AMRN by the end of 2013,
    following approval of Vascepa in the MARINE indication in 2012, approval of the
    ANCHOR sNDA in late 2013 and a successful outcomes study read-out in the 2017-
    18 timeframe. We assume that the company will launch Vascepa in early 2013 on its
    own. In addition, we expect Amarin’s expense structure to continue to increase
    through 2025 and that Vascepa maintains exclusivity through 2028.


    The three strategic pathways remain in play. Amarin held its quarterly call this
    afternoon, highlighting recent developments such as IP progress, approval of an
    additional Vascepa encapsulator and positive reception of initial marketing efforts.
    Of more immediate interest, the company continues to pursue three potential
    pathways forward for Vascepa: buyout, partnership and self-launch. Although it is
    unclear precisely how much progress has been made on the deal-making front
    since the last update in August, the company did explain that the negotiations with
    big pharma have been hampered by a lack of clarity on Vascepa’s NCE status.
    Meanwhile, although Amarin expects to begin hiring a sales force by the end of
    November (to stay on track for an early Q1:13 launch), it will remain engaged in
    buyout and/or partnership discussions if necessary.
    Reiterate NEUTRAL and $15 fair value. AMRN stock admittedly appears more
    attractive for a buyout trade as shares move lower, now that expectations have
    been reset and the company has bought some additional time to get a deal done.
    That said, we believe the chance of a deal in the immediate future (prior to NCE
    resolution) is low and the continued uncertainties regarding NCE and the strategic
    process keep us on the sidelines for now.
    FYE Dec 2011A 2012E 2013

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