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Amarin Corporation plc Message Board

  • nc3912 nc3912 Nov 9, 2012 1:50 PM Flag

    Buyout Offer Must Be On Table

    It seems like there must be a buyout offer on the table based on what Joe said in terms of time frame. He said that they will decide by end of November whether or not to sell or go-it-alone. You can't sell a company in three weeks. The offer must already be there with some variable in price based on 5 or 3 year exclusivity.

    Sentiment: Buy

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    • Dont they have to disclose an offer if there is one? I thought if theres an official offer they have to let SH know abot it

    • I don't want to get greedy or unrealistic, but AMRN may pull some kind of crazy deal like Pharmasett did ($11 billion for a drug that had only completed Phase 2 testing.) I am not saying $11 billion, but 50-60% of that could happen. With the ANCHOR indication, the potential is huge.

      Sentiment: Buy

    • That doesn't make sense If the FDA delays the decision another month.

    • If anyone doesn't think that "at least one" offer is on the table they should have their heads examined. Yes - the key point now holding off finalizing this is "probably" based on the NCE "and" Joe Z. holding out for what he knows this Company is worth. It is so obvious, logical, and just plain old common sense. I don't know how close they are to a deal, but it's going to happen.

      Sentiment: Strong Buy

      • 1 Reply to jrsautr
      • yes, and adding to that.... sometimes the investors see what we want to see... but in THIS CASE, with THIS MOLECULE ("fish oil"), it is not like HGSI's Benlysta "unprove" or DNDN's hyper expensive... technique...

        This molecule is JUST LIKE GSK's Lovaza, EXCEPT superior in more ways than one and in 3 DIFFERENT regimes, with the ANCHOR regime --- about 10 times as large as the MARINE regime, which competes with GSK's --- being approved, very likely, 8-12 months from today... and we know LOVAZA is basically a $1B a year molecule... NO SANE large pharma is going to stay back and say:

        Let's wait a year and see if AMRN could market this molecule. That just doesn't make sense, fro large guys who need hundreds of millions, to billions, per hear --- from safe, good, and efficacious drugs and therapies --- just to keep pace with OTHER giants...

    • My take from yesterday CC is that amrn already has an offer on the table with 2 prices, with and without NCE.
      Given the facts that there are 170M sh outstanding (including all warrants), even a 3 $ difference is 0.5T$ (half a billion) affair. That is why they are waiting. And if the price difference is greater than 3$, the stake is even greater than that.
      So with the 10Q disclosure of an circulating letter from FDA, the answer with be known either this month or the next at the worst.

    • Talks are going on.NCE uncertainty creates Price they are willing to pay.
      Now with 3rd qtr.report--everyone can see what they are spending on Reduce-IT=8.3 mil.$ WOW. Lot of people enrolled.
      More information helps the bidders as well as analysts.
      That's why JPM,Jeffries,Canaccord are sticking to their Price targets.

    • judging from his comment yesterday that pharmas spend 3 to 5 billion to develop one drug i'd say there is a 3 billion offer without nce and 5 billion with...they may go it alone if it stays 3 billion and sell later because it's worth 5 billion with patents and efficacywith no side effectsthe market is proven and with 17 yeas of patent protection a pharma won't let this slip away

    • That has to be the inferred argument: that is, that negotiations MUST have been going on from shortly after the FDA approval of the molecule.

      Because if we assume the opposite --- that there's no negotiations --- then we must also assume that the Company had been preparing to go it alone all these last a couple months.

      But since the physical launching infrastructure --- which will have to be put together, on the ground, a few months BEFORE a VASCEPA launching 2-3 months from now --- is NOWHERE to be seen, again, we COULD conclude a BO was likely in the works the last a couple months, contingent, perhaps, on things like the NCE (not the only thing but for both big pharma and amrn, the NCE is important, because that's basically a 6-7 year hassle free market exclusivity, one moat (FDA NCE) after another moat (USPTO IPs)...

    • Joe can't decide anything except going alone, which is the only real option..

      And that means bankruptcy, but Joe doesn't give a flying f, my bet is that he will leave AMRN very soon anyway.

 
AMRN
1.90+0.06(+3.26%)Aug 26 4:00 PMEDT

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