Last conf: CEO will start hiring staff by October.
This conf: CEO will start hiring after 2 week.
Why Delay: My interpretation: Price of buyout can't be decide without NCE decision.
Hope: NCE decision by this week.
Buyout - Around or higher than $35 (If it get NCE)
Buyout - $25+ (No NCE)
Hostile bid -Around $18
Partnership: about 1 billion initial payout, atleast 25% royalty - Price go up to $18-$20
Go Alone (Hiring news): Price go down 25-35% - $7-$8 range
When we know:
If we assume that NCE decision announce by this week end.
Either buyout announcement or Some sort of announcement on Offer by early next week. If CEO not happy with offer, likely announce though rumor confirmation or hostile bid. If nothing happen in next 3 week and no news on hiring, likely partnership at work.
In Any case, it's good buy limited loss possibility at this price.
Hostile bid can happen anytime including post hiring news. Same apply to buyout. Partnership unlikely post hiring. I give 20% go alone event with assuming greater than 50-60% No NCE status news. So most likely we go up from here. In case it drop due to NCE decision, I will add to average down.