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Amarin Corporation plc Message Board

  • coumery coumery Nov 17, 2012 1:09 PM Flag

    Can anyone give a numerical value between 3 and 5 year NCE?

    If yes please provide your rational.

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    • IF Vascepa had any real economic value, it would mean a lot..

      But since Vascepa will have negative value from 2015 (generic Lovaza is basically the same as genenric Vascepa, only superior), it really doesn't matter.

      NCE for EPA-E is impossible anyway, so it is in reality a non-issue.

    • 2 year worth of Vascepa sales - $1-2b. Plus some human psychological value and marketing value - it's nice to be "endorsed" by FDA.

      This is the reason why it's worth waiting for a few months. However the message from FDA seems getting clearer month by month :" AMRN, we don't want to play any role in you buyout saga. I will grant you NCE but it has to be after you sort out your business plan." The current b/o hype gives too much attention and pressure to FDA who truly doesn't want and like it. FDA will play this tug of war until AMRN announces its path going forward in public. NCE is coming. If it were a NO, we would have heard it in September as it's an "easy" decision. It's the YES answer that is hard to communicate as it's an exception case that FDA is willing to make.

      So the deal will proceed without NCE, and investors will lose at least $1b valuation. Well such is risk of biotech investment.

      Sentiment: Hold

      • 2 Replies to dbssanfran
      • I agree with what you say, but you forget that NCE is sort of a declaration which not only protects for 2 extra years, and gives psychological value to the product, but most importantly it says that it is new and different entity.

        The declaration of NCE status is a recognition of the distinctiveness of the product. The more distinct a new product is, the easier it is to protect in a court of law.

        Getting NCE designation means that the FDA thinks your product is that distinguished from the others that it deserves to be called a new chemical entity. And if it is determined to be that different, then it supports the notion that the patents are more likely to hold up if challenged. Now, not getting NCE doesn't mean patents won't hold up, but getting NCE will help everyone see the value of the lifetime of the patent protection and the value of the product increase.

        Removing more uncertainty increases value. Not just for each of the two years, but for the lifetime of the patent protection.

        You are short changing the value of NCE to a Buyout price.

        Sentiment: Buy

      • Thank you for answering. 3 or 5 years is for Marine Indication only? Or does it include Anchor as well?

        The bull case being made by management is that the patents will protect beyond 3 or 5 years, so we and management believes that the number of years it is FDA protected makes no difference at all valuation wise? (even if BP doesnt)

    • Yes ,,,, 2 years

      Sentiment: Buy

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