One thing I do enjoy about investing in AMRN is that the stock price can be fooled with ........ but a Buyout price can't.
I have noticed over the last two or three years that Biotech stock price reactions have been becoming more and more tempered. It use to be that a drug approval would really cause a stock to jump. Now, it seems like maybe traders are playing both sides of decisions (like NDA decisions) so strongly that the share price doesn't actually react as it would naturally (without options and hedgies working so hard).
AMRN seemed to have a tempered reaction to approval. I know there are a ton of factors at work, but you can't convince me that hedgies weren't a big part of the mild share price gain after approval.
THE GOOD NEWS, is that no matter what stock activity happens in the open market, the buyout price in this situation will be independent of current share price and cannot be affected by nefarious traders.
Whatever they agree is the price per share will be the price per share.
A buyout at $25 per share cannot be manipulated higher or lower.
A buyout at $35 per share cannot be manipulated higher or lower.
A buyout at $45 per share cannot be manipulated higher or lower.
The final deal will determine the share price and NOTHING ELSE. Unlike Vascepa approval, which could have moved the share price much higher, but something kept it from doing so.
Maybe the value of Vascepa can bring in even more than $45 per share? We'll see. It is just taking a couple/few months longer than I had hoped. Still excited.
What are your thoughts on NCE? Joe is so right when he refers to it as an 'overhang.' I personally think NCE and the ANCHOR patents could close the valuation gap in the discussions... I think that Joe wants around 7 B and the larger companies want closer to 5 B. We'll see, but he did seem to downplay it on the conference call this time.