OK...Vented on this disaster for most of the day and regrouped and centered my thoughts on the entire situation. These are my conclusions:
1. This stock is no longer an issue of science or superior product versus the competition.
It is an issue of management, finances, vision, marketing, sales, and product expansion
through the FDA. The low hanging fruit has been achieved. We're now in the big leagues
with the big boys (GSK and others) playing for keeps and for AMRN, it's the life or death of
2. Despite today, our market value is not cheap. 1.4 billion dollars for a one product company
with intense competition; no sales; no sales organization to date; and shrinking pricing for
competing products, both label and generic.
3. Worldwide market indications for potential Anchor uses are huge. Multi billions of dollars
4. We have a best in breed product, but not to the extent that differentiates us so clearly over
current competition (Lovaza), that it will compel a 25-30% premium if paid via insurance.
5. Low dosage statins (Lipitor 10mg) will continue to be the first line of treatment for most moderately
high cholesterol patients. Talked to numerous doctors on the same issue recently and they all ended with......."But I'll prescribe Vascepa if that is what the patient wants"...Interesting.
6. The issue that we might be dealing with a niche product in a huge market is very real.
7. Getting a sales force up and running to compete directly with GSK and others is going to
be a long and costly endeavor. 100 million could be a drop in the bucket. Changing
doctors minds to perscribe Vascepa over statins is going to be even harder. Getting
them to perscribe both is going to be a small miracle unless in very unique or serious
8. Our best chances for success is to be part of another well established, well financed,
and well respected pharma. Going it alone, if there are other options, is insane right now
and a pure recipe for failure given current management and existing competition.
9. Absent the Anchor indication, and purely on today's status quo, the company is probably
worth at most $15 per share in any buyout. The chances of a buyout if NCE is denied are
virtually nil. The practical effect of such a denial is probably negligible given current patent protection but the lack of being classified as a "new" chemical entity makes Vascepa just another fish oil tablet. Superior yes, but still, just another fish oil tablet.
10. I firmly believe we will not receive NCE. I doubt we will partner with anyone unless things
really get dire. We are not even close to any buyout. I don't think price is even an issue at
this time. I believe big pharma is waiting to see if we can compete with the big boys all by
ourselves...if we get NCE...and if the anwer is yes to both, then perhaps a buyout a year
or two out. Right now one simply holds the stock or moves on. $12 will be the NT high
and now major resistence. $7 should be the low if a NCE denial. We were lead down
an ugly path by management and now we're paying for it. GLTAL's...
First of all, I can't understand some of the things you are saying... Anyway, do you remember the MKM partner's note? It stated that Joe thought the NCE decision was imminent and that he was optimistic. This was said after the delayed NCE update in November. I don't know if this still applies, as they hired a sales force, but we'll see.
Interesting post ...some of which I agree with ...some I don't
7). Doctors will not prescribe Vascepa over satins anyway ....these are 2 different drugs for different indications . Statins do not lower TG's very well .
Vascepa does...With out raising LDL cholesterol.......Statins are aimed at lowering LDL .....so there is benefit to prescribing BOTH ...a statin and Vascepa.
I think there is a good chance we get NCE
Price matters. ....without insurance co pays the best LDL cholesterol lowering drugs ( before generics ) were between $5-$6 a daily dose ( Lipitor , Crestor etc ) .....does anyone think that was a coincidence ...or. Just market research to determine what price the market would bare.
The market is telling GSK that we won't pay $8 a day if DS supplements of similar strength are half the price.
I'm concerned Amarin will get the same message if Vascepa is priced the same way .
I agree with you AK 100% on the pricing issue. I'm seeing it now all over the place in many
companies...QCOR a main example of an unrelated but major selling drug being used for
other indications, now the insurance companies are saying we won't pay for that after years of no problem, then second guessing the need for the drug even now for the primary indication as well.
One can see where all of this is going either under future reduced Medicare benefits or Obamacare...flip a coin.
Another reason why we might not have seen a takeover or even partnering at this juncture
with AMRN. I mean how much would a partner pay for exclusive marketing rights here in
the US and/or Europe given the unknowns, not only for demand of the product, but pricing,
and insurance reimbursement as well.
Until AMRN has at least a year of sales under their belt and Anchor gets approval,
the risks to a potential buyer is very high. Yes, they might have to pay more by waiting
but at least they will know what they're getting.
Spot on! Mismanagement lead their investors down an ugly path and we are all paying for it now. The spin is over and the hard work gia can still end up a disaster. Their best path forward is a partnership or buyout in the mid 20 range taking into account the anchor indication. They are not suited for taking this to market, esp. anchor. What a waste of valuable time and money on JZ's part. I cant stand A.F. but, I agree with the voting, JZ is crowned the worse bio CEO for 2012.