Steve RosenmanComments (277)
Have a clearer picture re: recent announcements / current situation. Will write some more next few days...all positive, very. 12 Dec, 10:03 AM
Steve RosenmanComments (277)
Get ready for a ride folks and get your thinking caps on... Why would AMRN announce a new board member be added at this point, and the addition of that board member equaling an odd number on the board... Best interest of stockholders vs. desired value for Anchor could actually be point of challenge. Provacative, huh? 12 Dec, 02:31 PM
Sentiment: Strong Buy
Rosenman is a narcissist who needs to feel as if he is the "be all end all" amongst biotech bloggers. He reminds me of those who continually tells us "the world is coming to an end" or the "next earthquake will wipe California off the map". All Rosenman does is keep predicting buyouts and offers innocuous (sp?) snippets of info that are nothing but one man's opinion. Yeah, sooner or later Amarin might/will get bought out and then Rosenman will claim he is the God of biotech bloggers for having "guided us" all along the way.
Ha....a better analogy to Rosenman is that he is like the Pied Piper.
SR also wrote this today about the 100M Loan
So if you have not seen the full 8K on the $100 million financing, I encourage you to read it. Oh my, what a crazy week... the terms have near term BO written all over it. The reason the 8K was even required was b/c there are terms in it that were not disclosed on the official CC and PR.
Namely, there is a specific payment option for change of ownership. This is not typical. Its usually covered in provisions of paying back, but COC language is crazy.
The timeframes are nuts...from the time first payment occurs (end of 2013? Really?) to the COC timing and payment amounts/conditions, all is just screaming that there is short term uncertainty whether company will be on its own or not.
Not to mention the collateral solidifies the confidence that smart money has in AMRN...its all based on owning AMRN's IP and trade secrets.
Sentiment: Strong Buy
Rosenman is making a mountain out of a mole hill. Read that 8K carefully again. Really. The terms of repayment is nothing but a clause and equivalent to a no early repayment penalty for a common mortgage loan. What it is all saying is that in the case of BO before Dec 13, amarin can repay the debt in a whole swoop. There is no BO hint whatsoever that I can detect.
To help you guys compare amarin loan terms and a common mortgage loan, imagine you take out a 15 yr mortgage loan at 5%. You would receive a yearly book with 12 coupons. If you don't do any extra payment you will make 12X15 payments in toto. If you pay one more payment per yr, you would have paid back sooner, say 13.5 yrs instead of 15 yrs. So all that amarin repayment clause is saying is that in the case of a BO, amarin can pay all outstanding debt at a swoop without paying all the rest of the already scheduled quarterly payments which are scheduled to end by May2017. That is all people. I would not work up any excitement over this.
As much as I'd love there to be a "near" term buyout, I don't think the 8K suggests that. Sounds like it is structured in case there is a buyout in 2013, more favorable before the end of 2013 versus 2014. Sounds consistent with potentially GIA for Marine indication, generate sales, get Anchor off the ground and approved. Then during second half of 2013, seek buyout or partnership for Anchor.
Anyhow, hope we hear a positive NCE by Friday. Good luck folks.
hmmm right along with my thoughts i just posted plus 100m is not nearly enough to truly compete with azn, pfizer, something is in the works, i have seen several respected authors and bio tech analysts mention that nce should be announced this update. those that sold the drop could have missed the rocket ride to the new world.
i think steve is onto something. i was thinking of the amount borrowed, 100M it would seem that if amrn were very serious about launching vascepa on their own they would need more like 300-400M. the terms of the loan are dubious with the first payment at the end of 2013. the way it is written speaks volumns about what amrn is trying to accomplish, that is to be bought out and use the 100M only if necessary. we now are starting to hear about a possible nce decision this time which would allow a bidder to firm up an offer. the next 60 days will be very exciting if the nce decision is forthcoming this friday.
Steive Wrote This earlier today in response to a comment.
Steve Rosenman Comments (279) kati was on the team that communicated the approval of amarin's marine indication..kati may not know jack, but she knows amrn.
now, her group approved rugs, has nothign to do w/ nce...but she is in the loop about status.
i am hearing nce imminent from market sources...i am not sure i believe it at all. only thing indicating maybe it is possible the company has heard it is coming is b/c no 8K filed yet... as of last week, i know there was no word.
Encouraging words, my foot.
As usual, SR taking you for ride. You guys are like raging bulls running madly towards a red cloth. AMRN hired a new member because they needed one. They are going solo, remember?
icetea, I have to agree with you. Amazing people either don't take time to read the latest 8K closely or their english comprehension is low. I am an immigrant and I read that 8K very closely, and there ain't nothing exciting about it especially about the BO hint part.
I like how Rosenman thinks. He also said the new 8K or financing has "near-term BO written all over it." Could be interesting. I just wish I could copy paste his comments from Seeking Alpha
asp, rosenman track record has been atrociously for all the forceful and unequivocal statements he has made in the past, regarding FDA NCE decision and potential BO announcement(s). Basically I have written him off .
I don't fully understand the situation from what we have, however I do feel if the situation is a true dilemma, it's a good idea to bring in a fresh mind. The timing and everything else just suggest that the stack is very high.