I think they can get close to $22 now. If you're projecting the end of the year you must factor in ANCHOR, decent (and rising) script counts and even NCE. JZ wants more than $22, which is why it isn't sold yet. With the above the BO probably has a "3" in front.
For those that say how do you get a 3X or 4X multiple of where we are now you must consider that with what I listed above the pps should be in the high teens by summer.
Also, ANCHOR is an absolute - "out of the park" homerun. JZ has widely stated that they are up for auction going into ANCHOR. With the "patent cliff" and those massive sums of cash/line of credit in the BP vaults there will be a lot of bidders. They all want it and someone will overpay. Happens in every feeding frenzy...
Sentiment: Strong Buy
agree in general with your take, but the time for a buyout at 3 times market cap from here now are gone. That could have happened last summer, but buyers got greedy with low ball offer knowing company would have to regroup (GIA) and jump through hoops if not BO. They were betting that they would take low ball and take quick profit. Now,Amarin has plan and started jumped through the required hoops to Go It Alone (GIA) and this changes the game significantly. A lowball takeout is off the table. Table has actually turned and high bid is only way to take out Amarin now. In another year there will be no reason for Amarin to be bought out at all (although they will need to partner for international reach). There are too many catalysts (launch, NCE, patents, Anchor filing/quick approval, launch of ANCHOR indication, etc) that will drive this up on it's own. I wouldn't doubt they are thinking now they may be able to make this a =$100 per share in three years on their own and ditch pharma BO option altogether. This will be slower ride, but ultimately would take us much higher. The one caveat is if launch is pathetic, price could drop and hostile bid may work, but I think this is unlikely under these current (favorable) market conditions. With cash flow starting to materialize, the bottom line is the longer it takes for deal to materialize, the richer the offers will be- and significantly so if after ANCHOR filing with FDA.
Sentiment: Strong Buy
Multiple Choice: Choose the Correct Response
A. You're either joking
B. You haven't realized the full potential of this company
C. You're a basher (I don't mean to offend you - I don't think you are, but just putting it out there)
D. None of these
Which one is it?