Its not accurate to say the least. Doctors are not prescribing or expanding Lovaza b/c its trial limitations and its side effects - simple as that. Lovaza has stalled and now it is going to be killed.
The Anchor indication could be one of the most important indications and lucrative opportunities for a pharma company in years.
There is high interest currently by BP and we should see how things play out once NCE concluded.
Sentiment: Strong Buy
don't know where you get your info but you're wrong. over 50% of Lovaza sales are off label. There are no pre-auths requiring TG levels prior to therapy. Many patients want an omega 3 for perceived CV benefits and doctors have no problem writing it since there are no drug drug interactions nor is there an adverse event profile to be worried about. And you're absolutely smoking something if you think Anchor is going to be a block buster. There are other options. Ever hear of statins? fibrates? all generic. WIthout an outcomes indication it won't matter.
And have you noticed that there are pure EPA supplements available right now to anybody who wants them. You don't need a doctor's prescription or anything.
Pure EPA just like Vascepa without all the extra hassle and cost of doctor visits, prescriptions, blood tests, etc. and on and on. I am talking about the same pharmaceutical grade pure EPA without a prescription.
So you can get all the benefits of EPA without DHA by taking something like plusepa. Plusepa is pharmaceutical grade EPA with no DHA. It is inexpensive to boot.
And Anchor indication has no worries about EPA and DHA combinations anyway so they can take any omega 3 supplement to get all the benefits of EPA and DHA.
For anybody trying to limit DHA intake, there are several prescription free, pharmaceutical grade pure EPA supplements you can take right now for half the cost of Vascepa.
All the benefits of EPA without all the hassle and expense of prescription required Vascepa.
The biggest issue affecting sales will be conversion rates of patients currently on Lovaza and switched to Vascepa. That conversion hinges totally on the speed of physician awareness of Vascepa advantages over Lovaza. The big prize is capturing a large piece of the current $1B already being prescribed.
But why would somebody want the benefits of pure EPA and not currently be taking something like plusepa? Plusepa is a pharmaceutical grade pure EPA supplement that has been available to potential vascepa users for many years. If they didn't bother taking pure pharmaceutical grade EPA for the past 5-10 years, why would they start now?
Bingo that's the volt I remember I brought this point up a while back it will be a bigger struggle then people think I know my physician for example is big on if ain't broke don't fix it so if somebody has been on Lovaza for quite a while and there numbers are fine it could be a difficult switch.
Sentiment: Strong Buy
Those stressing over Marine sales figures need to be reminded Anchor is the big indication. NCE granted and Buyout by June is most likely scenario but nothing for BP needs to happen before June since they care mainly about Anchor and REDUCE IT and do June is the time frame they would need to have Vascepa in the bag in order to start gearing up for Anchor indication.
By march should see NCE decision, hopefully in Feb, either way, initial sales are not that meaningful and there is not even one analyst that has stated what good or bad initials ales numbers should be, there is a reason...Anchor and RECUCE IT are the bigger values and why it is worth 3-4 times it's current price in a BO.
kt, NCE is either going to come in February and if it doesn't it won't come until by maybe June. My point is that Joe alluded to he's waiting for a decision between January and February, and if not then he hopes it comes by June, so obviously, he thinks the FDA may be looking at something which would be in Jan/Feb.