GSK Q4 2012
The 10% sales decline primarily reflected the loss of sales of Vesicare following the conclusion of the co-promotion agreement in Q1 2012. Lovaza sales fell 6% in the quarter reflecting the negative impacts of both adjustments to previous accruals for returns and rebates and wholesaler/retailer stocking patterns.
Kay,Great post on Lovaza--- shows wholesalers are adjusting their inventories for Lovaza--knowing Vascepa was going to be launched by the end of Jan.2013.
Amarin's CMO-Paul Huff has been talking to them since Aug.2012.
The decline could be fully independent of the Q1 2013 Vascepa launch--but could also be partially reflective of "...wholesaler/retailer stocking patterns..." which were anticipatory of modestly declining Lovaza sales as Vascepa ramped up.
I don't know what the storage situations are for retail pharmas, but most retail storage space is at a premium, and even modest increases in need--e.g., to stock a new-to-market drug, like Vascepa--can pinch an already overburdened system. In response, you'd want to make room, and you'd do so by forecasting what demand might be lessened as a result of the newcomer. In this context, lowering your standing Lovaza order would be logical,
thanks kay..good to see that 6% is because of patterns..so, amarin has a good chance to steal those numbers from GSK..hopefully, it's 30% atleast in the next two quarters..
also, on the other note, do u think NCE decided this month? volume is too low and i don't think it's coming this month..