couldn't find anywhere..
Q4 Lovaza sales will not reflect anything on how Vascepa's doing. 2013 Q1 will
Wrong. Wholesalers know Vascepa is coming.So they have to be careful in inventory planning for Lovaza starting in 4th qtr.,2012.
Go to drugsdotcom/sales/lovaza
Down slightly from Q3
GSK Q4 2012
The 10% sales decline primarily reflected the loss of sales of Vesicare following the conclusion of the co-promotion agreement in Q1 2012. Lovaza sales fell 6% in the quarter reflecting the negative impacts of both adjustments to previous accruals for returns and rebates and wholesaler/retailer stocking patterns.
Sentiment: Strong Buy
Kay,Great post on Lovaza--- shows wholesalers are adjusting their inventories for Lovaza--knowing Vascepa was going to be launched by the end of Jan.2013.
Amarin's CMO-Paul Huff has been talking to them since Aug.2012.
The decline could be fully independent of the Q1 2013 Vascepa launch--but could also be partially reflective of "...wholesaler/retailer stocking patterns..." which were anticipatory of modestly declining Lovaza sales as Vascepa ramped up.
I don't know what the storage situations are for retail pharmas, but most retail storage space is at a premium, and even modest increases in need--e.g., to stock a new-to-market drug, like Vascepa--can pinch an already overburdened system. In response, you'd want to make room, and you'd do so by forecasting what demand might be lessened as a result of the newcomer. In this context, lowering your standing Lovaza order would be logical,
thanks kay..good to see that 6% is because of patterns..so, amarin has a good chance to steal those numbers from GSK..hopefully, it's 30% atleast in the next two quarters..
also, on the other note, do u think NCE decided this month? volume is too low and i don't think it's coming this month..