The bottom line will be sales and gross revenues...not number of scripts. If you have 1,000 scripts and they're basically free because of promotions and reduced pricing, that's all going to hit the bottom line pretty big each and every quarter. I realize the promotions and discounting are necessary during the launch period to get doctors and patients using Vascepa, but don't count on meaningful bottom line sales results for at least four quarters.
It's true heavy discounts form the company will lower the revenue, no DUH! However this is a drug you take for a long time so getting people on it, seeing good results and having doctors then give it to more people is the way to go.
Nobody even has a "script #" that would be considered good or bad. Analysts only estimate 50-100 million in 2013 revenue, the bar is set pretty low.
I think common sense tells you
1) If NCE is granted in February we will never see script #'s because the company will be sold before 1Q results are out
2) Anchor indication is where they become a BB drug so 2013 sales are not as meaningful as 2014
Great post kt that's what I was thinking why in the heck is this goober (sorry go but this is one pathetic post) even bringing this up we don't even any figures to debate yet at this point and he is already bashing some hypothetical script numbers pitiful.
So called "longs" really want is bias confirmation. Anything negative is feared. If the issue that golong raised which no profits and high cost of goods for the first yr due to the coupon subsidy by amrn, then that is his uncertainty. I, for one, do see that point. However it is my opinion that he could be wrong. One never knows what the collective mkt reaction will be. May be the mkt will key on the scripts uptake numbers or may be it will key on the profitability. My gut tells me that the uptake slope is more important than the lack of profits.
In my world, there is no difference between a weak long, a "herding" long ie a long who bought in because the price goes up, a long who does no DD, has no conviction, who sells at the first sign of pps decrease,that kind of a long is no different from a short.
And even if golong is a true short, his point about lack of profit in the short term does not bother me. Really, I have a big stake in amrn (around 70K at 8.5), I need to know, I want to see all the things negative that so called "shorts" can throw at or against amrn. I need to be aware of the negative factors I personally may have missed in building my case for buying amrn.
One last point. The mkt already "knows" about the discount/coupon. It is not a surprise. What the mkt "does not know" is the uptake rate, is it a hockey stick or not ? It is always "surprises" that move pps. That is my opinion.
It's just certain posters who egos are bigger than a hot air balloon . You can add armadillo to the list. He is right and everyone else is wrong. Probably was bullied as a child. He should follow JL to I hub and they can blow up that hot air balloon with their own breath!
you are right. the first few weeks or months, there is channel stocking effect. By next CC (the one in May) the situation would be a lot clearer. However at 8, the risk/reward is very good. By the time the smoke clears, the entry price will be much dearer. In the case of amrn I have already laid down my bet.