On a 12/6 after hours conference call (can be replayed by dialing 1-877-660-6853 (United States and Canada) or 1-201-612-7415 (International), conference ID 405508, Chairman & CEO Joe Z stated twice that assuming that the hiring of sales reps would limit the company's flexibility or ongoing strategic discussions would be a mistake. I would agree and fully believe that an acquisition of Amarin is desired by management and not one, but several potential pharma suitors.
Sentiment: Strong Buy
Well we had all the geniuses telling us how imminent a buy out was before the go it alone strategy was announced and now I have the pleasure to listen to more geniuses telling us how unlikely it will be until blah, blah, blah happens.
Anywhere between sNDA submission for Anchor and approval is my prediction. Anchor approval is pretty much a formality since Amarin has met or exceeded all the requirements laid out for them by the FDA to achieve it. It's likely this will be much of an event in itself. This is admittedly my blah, blah...
It's possible NCE determination may spur talks but I see that as more of an evaluation issue at this point then an event that will commence a deal.
No one....and I mean NO ONE is going to buy AMRN in the short run. Maybe after a year or two of sales. Maybe after the Anchor indication. Maybe after NCE is finally decided. Maybe..well "maybe"...never.
Look...This Board, and others for that matter, tend to look at BP as some mammoth ready teller just waiting to throw billions at any story that comes along that seems "interesting". If you have dealt with "big" anything, as I have in the medical devices business, these decisions are highly regimented, compartmentalized; and bureaucratic decisions, that simply don't spring out of no where.
Everyone who gets involved in the decision making process basically has their behind on the line if the thing they agree to buy, explodes. They're not going to take a 2 billion dollar #$%$ shoot that Vascepa is going to be a big seller. They will wait to see if it is or not. If it isn't, they'll just pass .If it is a big seller, they will likely pay up to get it.
As far as what to expect? I posted here year one sales for Lovaza back in 2006 at around 164 million. In 2007 sales went up over 225 million in 9 months...or approx. up 117% from 2006. So if we aren't in the 175 million range after a full year of sales it's time to start worrying. If we're doing 15 million in sales a month after a few months, not too bad. If we're doing 6-8 million, time to get really concerned. Anything under that.... bail.
This time round it's not rocket science here for the physicians. They know what fish oil is and what it allegedly can do, and not do. They will come to know Vascepa, and what the trials have shown to date. Hopefully, they will come to prescribe Vascepa over Lovaza, and the sooner the better.
But it's going to take some time, and the big question is do we have the time? We'll need a partner for Anchor? OK, why a partner and not a suitor for the whole enchilada? And is this partner going to commit hundreds of millions of dollars re Anchor if sales of Vascepa don't break 75-100 million for a full year?
This is why year one sales are SO important to us. It truly is the ball game IMHO.
Maybe when pigs fly? Maybe if we wish on a shooting star? Maybe if we pray real hard? Maybe when hell freezes? Maybe when Fish oil really means something? Maybe in a year? Maybe in 10 years? Maybe when JZ gets honest? Maybe with anchor? Maybe with reduce it? Maybe if? Maybe When? Maybe never?
that's ridiculous..any bp knows they can blow the doors off loveza with a seasoned widespread sales staff the drug is better it's that simple..the other trials shouls get monetary consideration and bp probably figured if they held out they could steal it but joe is seasoned as well and has balls to start selling it so it's pay me what i want now or pay me a lot more later when anchor and reduce it pass with flying colors..
yes, and this need may drive one or the other (perhaps both) to cut to the chase and make the over-the-top buyout offer that is needed sooner rather than later after this and that (we all know what they are) catalyst to occur first. Both have statins that would combine perfectly with Vascepa for HUGE blockbuster revenues down the pike. Add Teva to the mix and they can combine Vascepa with any (how about every!) different statin on the market. The take-out bid is going to make people's heads spin. In the end, however much they want to avoid it this will become a bidding war and to the victor will go the spoils. In this battle it's going to take big bucks and bigger balls to win. CEOs at top pharma companies have become a bunch of sissy-boys . . .
Sentiment: Strong Buy
Dine, none of your posts are current as you are rehashing old news that any knowledgable long here already knows or came to the same conclusion. Stop wasting your breath it's getting annoying. Post something new and factual, enough pie in the sky. I'll give you one more chance or your getting on the infamous iggy list next.
..and decision could well be make in next week after next OB update, no matter what NCE status is at that time. As Joe has stated, BP "gets it" as far as NCE status ....i.e. to BP it's of only marginal consideration,. My feeling is NCE more importnat for AMRN if they GIA long term,
since AMRN has fewer legal, management & financial resources for fend off generic challenges.
Just the size of a BP acquirer would be a deterent to a generic coming into the space