All numbers based on weekly scripts at 22% discount to actual
Jan 18-25 15000 total 15000
Jan 25-Feb1 55000 total 70000
Feb 1-8 97000 total 187000
Feb 8-15 (est 900 visible scripts) 202,000 total of 389,000
Feb 15-22 (est 1300 visible scripts) 292,000 total of 681,000
Feb 22-Mar1 (est 2500 visible scripts) 561,000 total of 1.24MM (500 new scripts 2000 renew)
Mar1-8 (estimate 3200 visible scripts) 718,000 total of 2MM (600 new 2600 renew)
Mar 8-15 (estimate 3700 visible scripts) 831,000 total of 2.831 MM (600 new 3100 renew)
Mar 15-22 (estimate 4200 vis scripts) 943,000 total of 3.77MM
Mar 22-29 (estimate 4800 vis scripts) 1.1MM total of 4.87MM
I tend to be conservative with only a 600 new scripts with rest of shares from renewed scripts in March
Good point. I have this figured in a different model that I have created with 40% of free samples transferred to working scripts and 70% of visible scripts being refilled.
OK, at least it's a decent working model. I question whether they can ramp up that fast but it will only take a few weeks to see if the scripts are following your trajectory. These numbers on;y hit the low estimate but maybe with the stock at 8 some of that is baked in. Ok, I'm going to follow your model going forward. Hope you tweak it as further numbers come in.
This is only a very simplistic model that is very conservative.
I have a much more aggressive model where I figure a 70% prescription refill rate each week (based on number of visible scripts 30 days before) added to a new script increase at 500 scripts added to previous week up until 10,000 scripts. This number is then multiplied by 1.2 (figuring 20% of scripts not recorded) and multiplied by $184/script.
This may be too aggressive with end of June assuming that each sales rep is generating 40 new scripts/week which is probably pie in the sky. If some of the major cardiologists/lipidologists/endocrinologists get on board and mark their patients records to transfer to Vascepa over Lovaza when script renewal and follow ups are due, this may not be out of question.
I know AMRN's goal is to capture about 30% of Lovaza market by time Anchor is launched. This means roughly between 25,000-30,000 scripts written weekly.
Create your own model for what you think is realistic and invest accordingly. Good luck
Sentiment: Strong Buy