Possible positives short term
-NCE finally granted-I rate this a high probability
-Paid scripts on target with analysts expectations-I think this is questionable
-Anchor sNDA accepted by FDA-Expect 100% in April
-Positive combo results-I suspect this will happen just not sure how much boost to stock it gives
-Partnership in some format for Anchor indication-100% expect something related to this between June and September
Possible pressures on stock price
-Early scripts and 1-Q and 2-Q revenue below expectations-I expect this to happen since they are heavily discounting and sampling and it takes up to 90 days for existing Lovaza users to go through supply
-NCE Denied-Personally find likelihood low
-NCE delayed for rest of year-Again likelihood low but more possible than denial IMO
-Need for more financing-This is up in the air, What will cash burn be, will they extend the recent short term financing, will a partner for Anchor pay in some money for a stake, will there be a straight BO before they burn through cash-I don't expect cash flow positive until 2014 for sure
So my expectation is scripts and revenue Q-1 and Q-2 could drive price down a little as WS wonders if they can successfully launch-I would suspect Q3 and Q4 will be much better with Tier 2 and partnership for Anchor
However, if NCE is granted in March or April that would overcome any Script issues from 1Q or 2Q. So it's not surprising we are in this holding pattern in the 8's.
Agree on NCE. I think it's been tied to ANCHOR patents & sNDA all along. This is where Vascepa (EPA only) shows its stuff vs. subpar DHA/EPA compositions (GSK tried and failed with Locovaza in the 200-499 mg/dL Trig's population). With the ANCHOR sNDA & NCE in hand, GSK won't be able to raise a ruckus with the FDA.
I really hope NCE decision will come March or April so we can finally move on and forget about this subject.
Who else thinks that analyst sales projections for the first year are way too high? I would love to see Vascepa having a great launch and a great first year but I'm trying to be realistic and I don't believe that they can reach more than $100 million. Lovaza (Omacor) didn't have competition, we have some. But on the other side I'm amazed by the analysts/WS because many don't even care to lose one word about the huge ANCHOR market. For me it's clear - 2014 is gonna be Amarin's year. Everythin is possible... huge sales, huge PPS, chance of BO, huge partnership....