Biotechs come down to 2 main components. #1 - Valuation #2- Catalysts...
In Aug 2010 AMRN came out w Marine Data stock went to $7-$8
In March 2011 AMRN had ANCHOR data stock went to $16 ($17-$20 is irrelevant bc it was based on B/O spec)
Both Trials were run under a FDA SPA. Bottom line that mean approval WILL happen.. Do DD for more details.
Institutions bought most of their stock between $9-$15 bc it's about Valuation for BOTH markets
The FDA wanted the reduce-it study to be underway b4 AMRN filed the ANCHOR sNDA, thats the ONLY reason why AMRN waited this long to do it. It had NOTHING to do with ANCHOR Data. The ANCHOR trial was a SPA and data was great. End of Story!!
So what you have had for the last year and 1/2 is a disconnect by the market and investors from the ANCHOR mkt. Plus all the focus was around NCE and B/O. Well wake up ppl, the ONLY reason why Big Pharma is buying AMRN is bc of ANCHOR a 10x's larger mkt, so to sell stock bc of NCE delay and B/O delay is STUPID bc ANCHOR is and always was coming in 2013..
On another note, for those who think BP would not buy AMRN for $30-$35+ bc the stock is @ $8 doesn't have a clue!! I have been and have friends and family in the M&A biz, when talks r going on w AMRN and BP they are based upon AMRN's valuation for both markets. AMRN's base mkt valuation with ANCHOR is $16, NOT $8..
So at $30-$35 thats 100% prem which is a deal considering amrn mkt will be 10x's larger then competition.
This is why Joe Z won't budge, but this will all change soon. Once sNDA is accepted from FDA and the ANCHOR is given a PDUFA date for 2013, ANCHOR mkt valuation will hit...
What many seem to not realize is every Inst target from $12-$30 is all based on ONLY the MARINE mkt..
So what do you think will happen when Instu facter in a 10x's bigger mkt once PDUFA is given..
99% of the nay sayers and the bashers have their ENTIRE argument based on the fact that AMRN is $8.. Let me know how that analysis works out for you in the next 3-6 months...
For those who can't buy more amrn the day to day pricing may be fustrating, but if you really know the WHOLE PIC here AMRN, Drug, Market size, FDA and FDA proccess, Patents, competition, etc. then you know that the stock at $8 is the BIGGEST gift ever given..
Bashers may put their entire thinking on the stock price, but Don't let that take your focus away from the FACTS..
The facts are AMRN has hit every milestone it said it would. The only thing is NCE and yhats the FDA NOT AMRN, so GET OFF IT ALREADY..... Vascepa is better and safer then Lovaza so patents are good enough and in the ANCHOR mkt there is NO other drug/generic. So who do you need exclusivity from, the BOOGY MAN.. LOLOL... NCE would be great and AMRN would love to have it but it's NOT needed at this stage with 19 Patents and protection till 2030..
In conclusion there are many parts to this picture that most have no clue of. Well that comes down to DD so whatever. Either know ur company or buy something else, but don't blame AMRN.
As for investors, who are you to tell Joe Z and AMRN what to do with the Multi Bill drug they created? LOL..
They will sell when they are ready, not when u think they should.. Joe Z created the ONLY 2 FDA approved drugs that now will treat the ENTIRE Trig space and combo w Statin. So if you don't think he knows what he is doing SELL.. Bye and trust me, you won't be missed.
And if ur a day trader fine, trade, but don't try to give ur opinion on AMRN bc u invest for a diff reason then Lt investors.
If ur a true LT investor that bought AMRN bc of it's DRUG, 50 mill patient mkt, and B/O potential, then BUY more or sit tight and stop listening to the BS posted by bashers that don't have a clue..
Truth is most bashers are just losers that don't wanna admit they own the stock bc ppl will bash them.. AWWW POOR BABIES... And they they end up bashing just so they can buy the stock u sell when they make u panic.. SHORTS days are numbered and it's becoming harder for them to make $$, thats why they bash more and more each day..
Stick to the FACTS and sit tight, the next few months will bring it all together. Good luck!!
Harvey, I agree with most of what you said, but I'm skeptical.. You said that you run a multi-million dollar fund. First, why would you be on YMB giving people advice and second, why would you have the time ??
I don't run a fund. I do Private Wealth Management... And I have posted a total of less then 10 times in the last 6 months on YMB. So i wouldn't say my focus is here..
If you don't want my advice just bc u assume i should have time to post once in a while thats fine. But I would look more at the facts I write..
FWIW i know "harvey" well, and he represents double-digit millions in this stock. he gets frustrated by many stray comments and incorrect info passed around. other than that, he's a fast typer.
Sentiment: Strong Buy
Cougar Bio sciences - we did deal Privately at $4 and J&J b/o for $1 Bill ($40) That is the most $ paid for a biotech with a drug in PHZ 2..
Relaint (Lovaza) - GSK bought them for $1.7 Bill and Lovaza was valued at $400 mill at the time (+400% prem)
Hope that helps
At the risk of incurring the wrath of 28 positive thumbs up, I must dissent.
This company is not worth $30-$35 or over 7 billion dollars because the Anchor market is 10x's
the Marine market. If AMRN cannot capture the current over 500 tg market over Lovaza, having a market
10x's that size for 200-400tg patients is not going to make this a 2 billion dollar in sales company.
Simple math. If doctor's aren't prescribing Vascepa over Lovaza, with or without statins, for the 500 tg
and up group, multiplying that market tenfold for those who are a half to a third at risk, just ain't going to happen friends. Doctors aren't waiting for the Anchor indication approval to start opening the floodgates
for prescriptions of Vascepa for the lower risk groups. If they thought it appropriate they would do it now off label. Doctors make off label decisions virtually every day. Off label is both legal and common practice in the medical profession.
Has anyone here bothered to talk with any Cardiologists? I have. They prefer either Lipitor or Crestor
in low dosages over fish oil Lovaza, and/or Vascepa (although most I have talked to had not heard
of Vascepa but they tend to lump all fish oil together pretty much in the first place). Most see no harm
in using either, and would prescribe Vascepa if the patient wanted it, but it would not be the first line
What would make them change their minds? Reduce IT, and results showing fish oil taken with or without
statins, show meaningful reductions in heart attacks.
Without meaningful and growing sales in the 500tg and above group, and the capture of at least
20% of the market share from Lovaza, Anchor ain't going to be coming up on a big white horse and
save the company. Delude yourself if it makes you feel better I guess, but don't try and sell it as truth.
Vascepa and Lovaza have the same indication, but Lovaza has the side effctive, which would increase LDL. The MDs continue to give Lovaza to their patients while Vascepa is available at the market, then they should have the liability to the patients who have increased LDL. That also could explain why Lovaza website down since then and nobody fix it.
Sentiment: Strong Buy
Thanks for a great analysis using critical thinking. The buyout price will be awesome specially since the combo study will determine for sure how pure EPA increases bioavailability of a leading Statin. Hence Amrn102 will also carry its own price and included in a buyout price. It gets more fluid as time goes on. Current pps is irrelevant unless one wants to load more.. Only the buyout price really matters.
Excellent post and very well said. Like you said, know why you are in this stock to begin with and ignore the bashers. Many things coming that will move this stock and Anchor is very big. Also remember the combo pill results are due in the 1st half and are expected to be great. Oh and by the way that market is a lot LARGER than Anchor. Thanks for you post.
Sentiment: Strong Buy
Smoke some more crack. This P.O.S. was supposed to hit $26-$30 according to the B.S. analysts. Now we should cheer because it might go half if the Anchor or Reduce it make reality. Whatever. Maybe I will hit the lottery to. Joe is a scam artist riding the coat tail of LOVAZA. They made a minor change and suckered everyone into this P.O.S. stock. Good luck. If I ever see close to the $12.90 a share I paid I am gone just like Scam artist Joe Z. Oh yea did you know there are more buyers interested then they have employees?? Wow that is awesome. Thanks Joe you lying scammer. Oh yea when were you going to disclose that you were going to borrow 100 million to keep your scam going. Oh yea that's right after you borrow it. You suck JOE Z!