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Amarin Corporation plc Message Board

  • intrinsic5000 intrinsic5000 Mar 1, 2013 8:55 PM Flag

    Comment from JL on investor hub

    Wow...

    Did the FDA change its mind about the NDA?..Did'nt the company just file for the ANCHOR 35 million patient indication..

    The drop to pre ANCHOR levels is ridiculous..I simply had to buy when the PPS hit $7.52...

    The prinicipal argument hoisted against AMRN is skepticism that doctors are going prescribe (actually suggest) patients take fish oil instead of putting up money for the good stuff..Included in this are weak arguments that patients can receive the same benefits from fish oil as they do from Vascepa..Weak arguments because this is simply not true. The fact the company is not featuring a full court press on the sales results in the first couple of weeks is being used as a proof the drug will be a long term failure..None of these arguments will hold water..

    A problem AMRN faces, and one that is seldom stated, is that Vascepa, because it is a fish oil derivative, is not very sexy in the biotech world filled with miracle cancer cures DNDN and fancy diagnostic electronic devices like NEOP (or whatever they call it now)...Well sexy or not Vascepa will make money and plenty of it..The share price at present allows for plenty of skepticism and then some..

    AMRN's valuation is not difficult if you know how many patients they will service. The drug is administered daily in known quanity and its profits are determined in the same way you would the profits of a beverage company..Figure costs of goods and services including financing, subtract these from revenues and you have profits..At the present PPS an estimate based on drug industry averages...indicates AMRN would only have to be treating 400K patients out of a total cohort of 40 million potential patients..To reach its current valuation. This would be a conversion of 1%..This is way beyond skepticism..

    Vascepa simply put addresses a potential market that is so vast that the market has trouble getting around it. The pathophys is complex and well understood by very few investors..IMHO the rationale is very good and very important...but as an investment it does have to be that good, because the indication is so enormous...

    ": ) JL

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    • Intrinsic,
      Why on earth would you post that garbage here? JL left Yahoo! because everybody figured out he was a complete and total fraud. How many men in their seventies do you know who post online? How many of them post using emoticons? Now just sort through all of his bogus claims he posted here and laugh like everyone else on this board does whenever he would post his bs.

    • good to see a JL post again, even if its the recycled coca cola analogy

      we are only a few months from trajectory being established

      BTW I bought more as well

      Sentiment: Strong Buy

    • True not sexy but no toxicity either, those other drugs have major side effects and need to be monitored

    • Intinsic....I know it's sometimes tough to face reality, and I'm not basing my posts, or viewpoints, on one month in sales...trust me on that.

      Technically the stock is a mess. 20/20 hindsight would of had all of us selling when the stock broke 10.
      I hung in there foolishly helped by all the JL and others hype on the GIA sales launch. Thought doctors might have an idea how Vascepa would be received by the physician community in general, and obviously most were clueless.

      Finally got around to speaking with Cardiologists that have treated my wife and they were lukewarm on fish oils in general as a first line of treatment. The stock continued to dive. Silence from the company. Lots of free give-a-ways and promotions for Vascepa. 275 reps generate 565 scripts in a month nationwide. 11 scripts per state for a full month for 275 reps? What about the JL fast uptake and launch of Vascepa? Talk to more physicians. They'll wait to see a Reduce It type trial result. Prove Vascepa reduces heart attacks. Until then low dosage statins for the Anchor group, and maybe Vascepa or Lovaza for the high risk ones with statins.

      Yes...I'm very negative right now. Yes... Will likely exit my position if we ever see $9 again.. Billion dollar company with probably 25-35 million max in sales for a full year. Company could hemorrhage money at that rate. Anchor indication?...Yes...huge potential market for sure, but IMHO physicians aren't going to prescribe it as a first line of treatment for low risk patients if they're not prescribing it for high risk ones. Poor logic to state or imply otherwise. They will continue on with low dosage statins until Reduce IT gives them the outright compelling data to change their course of treatment. If it is indeed "compelling" in five more years.

      Hope I'm dead wrong, and sales start to ramp up big in the next six months, but given what I heard from
      managment in the CC..I'm not that encouraged frankly.

    • JL: I have more or less supported your posts as they are factual and well thought out. If you could scroll
      back to "Presumption of Favorability" posted earlier today, as I'd appreciate you take. I believe it is both
      factual and fundamentally important.

    • Intrinsic .....thanks for posting that IHUB post from JL
      Ak ( known to you as Bozo )

      • 1 Reply to akanz2
      • I know you as Bozo as well. I think it has something to do with not figuring out that Red Meat and Dairy Products are causing your cholestorol numbers to be elevated until a complete stranger on a Yahoo! message board told you that they are elevating your cholestorol numbers. That and the fact that you didn't learn that Red Meat and Dairy Products increase your cholestorol until you were over sixty years old. Being over sixty years old and just learning from a very questionable Yahoo! board poster that Red Meat and Dairy Products increase your bad cholesterol makes you a big Bozo in everybody's book. Good luck in your quest for learning about the negative impact smoking has on your health!

        Sentiment: Hold

 
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