Did dome research with all these numbers thrown around about Lovaza launch such as Golongin's claim of 185 million the first 9 months and 220 million the first year(Lies FYI) and the claims of monthly script data.
Facts are these:
Reliant had about 800 sales rep with several products
AMRN has less than 300 sales reps for 1 product
Reliant was approved in December 2004 but not launched until October 5, 2005-10 Months from approval to launch
Vascepa was 6 months from approval to launch-4 months quicker than Lovaza
Lovaza for 2006 sales were 154.2 million which was the first full year of sales
Reliant was a private company at launch so could find no details on scripts but could on sales
I have accounted for all of Reliant sales for 2005 launch year and all years forward.
2005 Reliant Total Sales: 134.8 million
Innopran: Just over 12.8
Lovaza: Just under 7 million from October 5 thru Dec 31 or almost 3 full months
To compare Vascepa needs to do more than 154 million in sales from May 1, 2013 to April 30, 2014-if they do that the launch sales will exceed Lovaza's sales for the same time period after launch and excludes the first 3 months of ramp up time
Sales increased 63% in 2007 the second full year after launch
Script number shard to find early on but sales numbers not so hard as above comes from various legal documents.
These are net sales so discounts are not included and AMRN will discount much heavier as the Lovaza Launch was considered highly successful. They did have an issue with getting refills about 6 months in based on salesman posts to message boards at the time.
Also, the same criticism about Vascepa was all over message boards back in 2005-2006. Amazing the similar bashing how doctors would not prescribe and this cardiologists says it's not proven etc...
Also lots of evidence of off label sales early on so 50% would not surprise me early on which menas Lovaza will lose market share RAPIDLY with Anchor approval
And Reliant didn't have a generic coming in two years either.. (Generic Lovaza in 2015).
And the omega-3 supplements where far fewer and of much lower quality than today..
Now 90% omega-3 supplements with comparable quality to Lovaza/Vascepa are coming on the market from several producers and that is probably why Pronova's owners sold that company to record low multiples..
Sure, the supps don't have FDA API approval, but the quality is basically the same and it's so much cheaper..
Again I know you are a basher but I still take your POV and try to see if some bass. With education what you list should not deter large Vascepa sales. Quality is NOT the same so that's wrong. Pure EPA has 1 study showing it reduces cardiac events and 1 ongoing while DHA/EPA study shows it does not. Even the shorts have admitted IF REDUCE IT has a positive result Vascepa would become one if the all time best selling drugs. Yes it is 5 years out but the point is DHA/EPA fish oil is NOT Vascepa and pure EPA.
In the interim between now and REDUCE IT results any doctor that has been recommending fish oil to lower trygs, which is an enormous number of doctors and primary care physicians, should switch patients to Vascepa or recommend PlusEPA. Vascepa at the high dose needed with insurance will be cheaper or the same cost. It is just logical to go away from a product that lowers trygs but does NOT prevent cardiac events and move people to a drug that lowers trygs, gives an overall better lipid profile AND has some evidence of reducing cardiac events. With proper doctor education, continued scientific updates etc... Vascepa can take much of the Lovaza AND supplement fish oil market.
Look for the combo results next and some of the positive markers that AMRN is seeing. VascEPA is doing things in the lipid profile that appear to directly relate to reducing cardiac events. It was and has been surprising to AMRN but for investors it is very promising.
Generic Lovaza cannot be sold for Anchor and since Vascepa is approved for Ancor insurance will not cover another drug off label in the Anchor pop. Since AMRN has a full year in ANCHOR, a full 2 years to educate doctors how Lovaza has harmful properties compared to VascEPA I think AMRN is in good shape, the timing of Lovaza generic works great for AMRN. GSK won't fight for Lovaza market share and AMRN will be well established in Anchor by time generics are out.
Good woork Ktsven
Much appreciated the persepctive
Having been in sales / mkgt for 30 years its utterly ridiculous for anyone to expect either guidance or meanginful and conclusions from 20 working days of selling Vascepa
BTW I'm in touch with cv pharm rep and he has a high degree of confidence that Vacsepa will rip out Lovaza entirely in less than a year . But it wil take a few months just to reach 30,000 cardiologists
the reaction was a joke
Sentiment: Strong Buy
Can't fly around these day with ONE me-too product and expect to be taken seriously..
I mean, if Vascepa really was something new or special it might get some small sales, but this is just insulting to the doc's intelligence..
Lovaza (Omacor) was also very well known and respected in Europe beacuse of the GISSI trials and it is one of the largest drugs in Italy, Vascepa is just an old fish-oil from Japan left for dead by all the Big Pharma's.
Stop dreaming folks, it can be VERY expensive in the stock market!
Listened to the Q4 CC and it sounded so incredibly pathetic, they know it's going down the tubes was my impression!
Great information, thank you. I also think their current sample policy is great. What better way to prove the brand than to hand it to the physicians to use. May cost them initially but once an MD has proof of his/her own, they will be sold. With a small sales group, this is a great strategy. Again Paul and Joe have been here before many times! Ramping up sales takes time so I am still confident this will be a successful brand.
Thank you for the very detailed comparison. Great job. The one critical thing everyone is ignoring in all the posts I have read when compaing Lovaza to Vascepa is the fact that when Lvaza was introduced it was a vigin market for very high TGL. They didnt have to fight the market out of someone else's hands. Its a completely different scenario for Vascepa. There arent any patients in line waiting for Vascepa. Do you guys know how difficult it is to by-force steal existing market share away from a incumbent. It is hell and you have to fight for every customer. Especially when they are with a well known brand such as PFE por GSK etc. We dont have an easy task. No sir. This is a massive undertaking and I believe JZ and his team know it and are doing it amazingly. We dont have to beat Lovaza in any way because the starting points are not same and we know the road will be rough but considering what has already been achieved since the launch I think we have a good chance of taking over a big chunck of their market very quickly.
Patience. We have a good product and agood team. I think they will do very well in time. Of course when Anchor gets approved, its a whole different ball game.
Sentiment: Strong Buy
It is also a bigger market now, I think much if if averages out though Marine indication upside is less wit Lovaza out there but with Livaza off label for a good part if sales Vascepa has an advantage right away since an approval is coming and there is actual data to support using Vascepa off label. Much has changed since Lovaza launch but sales comparisons have some validity. Obviously with Anchor Vascepa should at least triple expectations and thus be worth at least triple the BO of Reliant and thus still looking at 30 dollar stock IF They meet sales expectations which is why sales, even early sales, will determine stock price
Imran, your point is a good one , but it cuts both ways. Lovaza was introduced when there were no options. Now MD's and patients know hi trigs can be treated and is not longer a "virgin' market...awareness is heigtened to the extent they are looking for best option, not just the only option.
That's alot of work KT! It's appreciated.
We may come up a little short on these numbers with Marine indication but JZ commented on Wed at the preso that accurate numbers for Lovaza sales for mixed dyslipidemia is somewhere between 30-50 percent of total sales. Nice to hear these numbers from someone with his experience in these area.
I added to my shares today.
I think we'll beat those numbers for most periods, Anchor indication will come into play before the first 15 months is up. I question whether 1Q will be more than 5 million in sales. They did 7 million in almost 3 months so doing the 8.57 million for Q1 that average analyst have projected on 23 less days of sales and free samples and heavy discounting seems hard. If they were Tier 2 and did not need to discount I think 10 million would be reasonable but they are doing some initial heavy discounting.
The 100 million analysts estimate for full year seems doable and the 350 million estimates for 2014 is likely doable and possibly low as they could do 500 million next year with the right partner and sales force but they seem to want to have a conservative partnership regaining full control so the 350 million estimates for 2014 maybe more accurate but also means they won't give up any of the sales to another party, that they likely will hire a third party sales force. If they did partner up with a large firm then better chance for 2014 to be 500 million though AMRN's share would likely be ear the 350 in that scenario anyways but overall, though it is early, the current analyst expectations seem doable with 100 million 2013 and 350 million 2014. This assumes rapid move to Tier 2 and Anchor approval before 2014.
FYI average analyst estimates(7 analyst average)
2H 2013: 76.88 (My guess 30K Q3 and 46.88K Q4) If Anchor is actually approved before mid Q-4 and they have larger sales force for launch could see higher in Q4.
Q1 and Q2 are low sales but still reach analyst estimates for year. So let's not get caught up in 1Q sales as meaningful.