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Amarin Corporation plc Message Board

  • ktsven ktsven Mar 2, 2013 5:06 PM Flag

    Lovaza script #'s Launch and forward

    I was able to find some Lovaza script #'s from Reliant
    Known:
    First half 2006: 460,000
    First Half 2007: 1.1 million
    All 2007: 2.4 million
    2008: 3.6
    2009: 4.8
    2010: 5.6
    2011: 5.7
    2012: First 6 months: 2.6
    2005 3 month launch period: Estimate: 58,300 scripts or about 4,861 per week and 19,400 per month.

    Of course the scripts are cumulative as initial scripts are refilled and added to new ones so it's likely scripts were like :
    10K first month-These are complete guesses
    18K second Month
    30K third Month

    With AMRN we need the February monthly data AND we need to know the number of samples AND we need to likely compare after three months in as Lovaza had no competitor and Vascepa needs people to finish the remaining Lovaza script before they can switch. Of course it is a bigger, established market but the key will be the number of freebies that turn to prescriptions.

    I have no idea what kind of insurance coverage Lovaza had at the beginning. Monthly script numbers plus freebies is the number we will need at 1Q CC to make any comparisons.

    Lovaza does close to 100K in scripts a week , with the sales force we have I'm sure half the market is not going to be in play early with sales spread so thin so 10% conversion can get 10K in scripts per week I believe we can be near 74 million in sales this year, 15% can get us to the 100 million analyst estimate.

    Not unreasonable expectations but don't think we can see the results of conversions from samples and people moving off Lovaza until March, April or May monthly scripts.

    I think the first milestone is 10K in monthly scripts, once there, you can get a pretty good feel of how long it will take to go up. Of course Marine indication is not that meaningful to AMRN value, Anchor indication would be comparable to Lovaza launch as Anchor will have ZERO competition but the advantage of being in the marketplace for close to a year which will make doctors more comfortable prescribing for ANCHOR having a year in the market

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    • LOL...You call me an intentional liar/basher on this Board for stating a figure for first nine months sales of Lovaza (which you said didn't exist in 2006 cause the drug was not called "Lovaza" but something else...Idiot) which was off by around 29 million -185mil vs 156mil actual, and now your pulling wild guesses of script nonsense data out your a_s and we should all give you 50 thumbs up for that because it's more pro long hype cheer leading...

      How about dealing with some real objective facts for a change just to clear your head.

      Lovaza had (according to your figures) 460,000 scripts in the first half of their first full year of sales (2006).
      Where I went to school that's an average of over 76,000 scripts per moth. Cut it anyway you want it . You say they probably did only 10,000 the first month...Great. Then 18k...then 30k and so forth? Complete "guesses".
      Bottom line, they got to 460,000 scripts in their first full six months of sales.

      We did 576 scripts the first month. Double that to 1200 the second month per your scales. Increase that 67% for the third month to 2,000....then 50% more the next month or 3,000...then 50% more the next month or 4500...then 50% more the following month to 6750...Add those up...18,000 scripts for six months versus
      460,000 for Lovaza in their first six months of full sales. Is any of this sinking in Mr. Stat man? Is the picture getting any clearer or have you and the rest here gone off the deep end into total denial of outright facts.

      Of course "the Marine indication is not that meaningful to AMRN value"...You're kidding aren't you?
      It's the same indication that our competition, Lovaza, has been dealing with since 2006, and they're doing
      a billion dollars a year in the same "it doesn't matter"..."throw it away" market!!

      So we're basically tossing in the Marine indication market as now not being meaningful to our stock value?
      Are you nuts or what?

      • 4 Replies to golongin2008
      • See dip_sheet, there are others who think you're a spoiled, whiner, who trumps facts for fiction.

      • "576 scripts for the first month". So you are counting the first full 6 months of the first full year for reliant Lovaza sales. And you compare with the last 2 days of January for Vascepa Launch and call the Vascepa launch a fail. Oversimplified, but basically, this is exactly what you are implying. And on top of that, you are calling other people names for calling you out. You are very often, way out of base and extremely biased. Ktsven's reasoning is pure farmers-logic, which is all we got at this moment. Using discrepant numbers like you do THAT is biased speculation.

        Sentiment: Strong Buy

      • Actually your sales figures were a lie so you reliability is ZERO and now you compound it by taking the 6 months of sales AFTER the first 3 months and stating try we're the first 6 months of scripts when it was not, another lie and now you state 576 scripts for the first month which is another lie as numbers are not out yet and adding weeklies comes to way more than that
        My script data is from Reliant filings, the only guess was for how many the first 3 months by month as the first 3 months of scripts based on sales and revenue per script is pretty accurate. All the other figures are fact.
        So they did NOT get 460k scripts the first 6 months.
        Marine is not materially meaningful for AMRN investors for long term because unlike Lovaza they have a competitor so the ramp up should be slower, however for ANCHOR ramp up of sales should exceed Lovaza ramp up since a larger market with no competitor and Lovaza does not do 1 billion in marine as much is off label in Anchor which try will lose 100 percent to Vascepa in 2014.
        Not sure why you lie about sales, lie about scripts, make wild estimates on AMRN skips with no data to back up. You have ZERO idea how many people are on Vascepa because you have no idea how many samples AMRN gave out so you bizarre number of 576 scripts the first month is insane. I guarantee you when the number comes out you are not close.
        As mentioned Vascepa should have a slower initial ramp but 90 days or so out when people are through Lovaza inventory and samples run out thre should be a large spike.

        We shall see how it plays out, we shall see if management can do this launch well, of course it is possible they don't get the scripts WS expects, may happen but with ANCHOR and a 1000 prison sales force he future is still bright even if Marine starts weak.

      • golong -- you have the baseline wrong.

        Lovaza launched in October 2005 -- so the six months that you're talking about (Jan through June of 2006) would correspond to April to end of August 2013 for Vascepa.

        Also, Vascepa has done at least 2,000 scripts in February based on IMS data (which typically under-reports true results). So your calculations all need to be re-worked.

    • Go to know...AMRN at $7.50 is a steal...loading up on Monday!

      Sentiment: Strong Buy

 
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