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Amarin Corporation plc Message Board

  • ringbellplease ringbellplease Mar 19, 2013 3:02 PM Flag

    Question

    OK--so assuming Vascepa only captures a market penetration (similar to Lovaza) of the marine indication--would that justify a stock price of around $14ish?

    Despite the large Anchor market, there seem to be people i.e. akanz that insist that cardiologist WILL NOT prescribe this for the Anchor indication without a favorable clinical outcome study.

    How do others feel about akanz's view?

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    • i dont know akanz but it seems he may have some issues that are not typical to the average person. i do read here where people are getting vascepa for off label use, now i dont know if they are buddies with their doctors, doctors themselves or the doctors really like what they see and put them on vascepa knowing its up for anchor by eoy. right now its hard to value amrn with sales basically just out of the gate, we will need at least 6 months to a year with hard scrip numbers these weeklies seems to be on the lite side per many posters. of course by years end we are into anchor, amrn has alot in front of it, alot to do, some can run a discounted cash flow based upon assumptions of market penetration, give it 6 months and we will have a much better understanding of where vascepa is heading, imo.

    • First off Favorable clinical studies have already been proven for ANCHOR.. So the drug will be prescribed in that mkt. Second the reduce-it study and Combo are separate mkts from MARINE and ANCHOR.
      With that being said Lovaza captured about 15-20% of their mkt. So in just Marine AMRN would still be a $1 bill+ drug per year and easily puts the stock btwn $16-$18. However when you include ANCHOR 15% of 45 mill patients is roughly $6-$7 bill a year....
      It is very clear this company and it's drug will be huge. Just because the stock doesn't trade how ppl want it to doesn't change the drugs proven data, what they have accomplished so far and how the drug will sell. Now once you add the combo mkt with Statins ($26 bill yr) the upside is unreal. Granted this will all happen over the next 3-4 years or much sooner with BP behind them if a deal gets done.

    • 300-500 million prescribe Lovaza so minimum that is going to be prescribed for Anchor first year. Cardiologist will not be main prescriber in ANCHOR, it will be PCP. Already they have recommended fish oil and with new studies showing EPA/DHA may not have the strong benefits thought and the JELIS study showing EPA does just makes sense moist PCP's will turn to Vascepa.

      If they can't sell 1 billion in Anchor indication in 2015 they have poor salesman, simple as that. I think peopel severley underestimate the # of people in the Anchor population that are not a high risk but would benefit from PCP prescribing Vascepa. Anchor will be huge, no doubts in my mind on that.

    • Well?

 
AMRN
1.58-0.02(-1.25%)Apr 17 4:00 PMEDT

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