Truly amazing take down in the past week. It is beyond ridiculous now. If the NCE is delayed again or rejected we will languish in the 6-7 limbo until something positive occurs.
This YMB really really zucks. Can't follow a sequential dialogue (can't reply directly).
@ croesus... no problem.
I see this as speculation at its max speed.
No NCE decision..... GIA.... no Partner....... -40%
Now: uncertainty on startup sales is doing this.... more downtrend.
All I can say: it's too early to draw conclusions about Vascepa sales...... still think we can have sentence on the GIA (only MARINE) after 6 months of marketing, not before.
There are so many tricky numbers and unknown factors..... scripts.... refills.... coupons..... Tier 3 and 2.... wait wait, Tier 2 still not started......well started only on some insurers....
There could be even an exaggerated uptrend if one week the numbers DOUBLE.... so what would it give? Nothing, pure speculation.
It's like a car race... you can't make prevision at second lap.
So pay attention, because pure speculation can change direction in 5 minutes.
ARNA has almost twice the market cap based on 2014 revenues estimated to be 1/2 of AMRN estimated 2014 revenues, WS is acting like 1 and 1/2 months of sales means a dead drug. It's ridiculous overkill but trend is down so until we see the trend change expect it to go down.
I've kept half my possible AMRN investment in cash waiting for NCE decision, at this rate to double my position after NCE will cost way less than when I first put it aside.
Unfortunately if NCE is not granted in April do not see catalyst to upside until May with CC and better sales for 2Q.
Definitely seems overkill on this shorting/selling but I can see why there is no fear with shorts and why some longs would capitulate.
The only hope before May is a surprise jump in prescriptions one Monday as apparently steady growth of 200 additional scripts a week on top of the recurring scripts is not what WS wants. Of course at that pace within a year they are at 10K scripts per week and that pace would lead to close to 100 million in annual sales and you would think pace would quicken with Tier 2 and Medicare coverage coming online.
Interesting that WS has over estimated launch potential and now dropping estimates left and right which hopefully leads to under estimating Anchor potential.
Crazy drop, that's all i can say, overkill for sure.
The most ridiculus is how people becomes when it's about money.
You can see today a former pumper turned to a basher.... not typical id.iot basher - have to say - ... an educated one... nevertheless a basher. Hope all this professional lifestyle will give him back everything he deserves.
All I can say, I have a better life than such "persons".... I can play on market and staying still a man.
Patience or sell..... simple.
I am afraid your are misunderstanding AKA-NZ.
He is all for AMRN. He also wants a prescription. Unfortunately, the cardiologists are reluctant to prescribe Vascepa off-label. This may also lead to lower-than-expected sales before the approval of the Anchor indication (assuming the expectations included off-label use for the under-500 folks). This is a genuine concern, not bashing.
I disagree. I am feeling like croesus does, and I am optimistic for the long run. We both fear this is going to get worse before it gets better, that's all.
I am patient, but I am not having fun.
This particular lupo has a hard time crepare...
@croesus... can't reply directly
It's not referred to you.
It's that one who was 100% for Vascepa... now he's on his knees for Vascepa bottles but no doctor wants to prescribe him..... but nevertheless he has still a lot of supporters.
Weird human nature.
Now I am a basher because I was right about what just happened? Kind of a ridiculous comment. I have a very large position and still remain positive but simply was expressing my frustration with what is actually happening. I still remain hopeful in the long term but this has turned ugly or haven't you seen the latest price decline to 6.83 in the past 5 minutes?
Bottom is completely falling out. I wonder if management is working towards the opportunity to do another 1-10 reverse split. The management team is failing big time and it seems that they just do not care.
On a different note, I wonder if there are any "related party" connections between the Bio-Pharma outfit that loaned the $100 million and the management team/large investors. In other words, should Amarin fail, will certain parties still come out smelling sweet while the common shareholder gets screwed?
longfcel- sorry I thought you were referring to me. Hard to tell on this board sometimes. Can't even reply directly to your post. I am still long but not so strong after today! Hope we close above 7.00 (or 8 or 9 as well) There were large blocks taking it down below 7.00 before. Maybe they have decided enough is enough for today.