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Amarin Corporation plc Message Board

  • zz_azimi zz_azimi Apr 4, 2013 2:24 PM Flag

    A lot of conversion from lovaza to vascepa according to analyst

    Analyst Joseph Schwartz said IMS Health's weekly publication of Vascepa prescription data are tracking well. The largest TRx advance since launch was recorded last week, with 1,504 recorded last week, while refills and new prescriptions are picking up.

    Vascepa is tracking in-line with other cardiovascular drugs, including Johnson & Johnson's (NYSE: JNJ) Xarelto and Bristol-Myer Squibb's (NYSE: BMY) Eliquis. Schwartz noted, "Interestingly, early weekly Rx data for these potential blockbuster drugs looks similar to Vascepa, in contrast to [Astra Zeneca's (NYSE: AZN)] Brilinta, which had a disappointing launch."

    Schwartz sees marketing efforts and moves to obtain Tier 2 reimbursement further accelerating TRx growth. Amarin management recently commented that all Q412 prescriptions were under the Tier 3 designation. The analyst also said that Amarin, "has...seen a lot of conversion of Lovaza to Vascepa in patients with TG 500mg/dL."

    In terms of Amarin's sNDA for Vascepa in mixed dyslipidemia. Schwartz expects acceptance in late April to early May. Amarin already has an SPA for its ANCHOR study, the analyst noted, "acceptance of the sNDA should remove some uncertainty on the Street that the FDA will require outcomes data for this 10-fold larger indication."

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    • Although many see he difficulties involved in getting physicians to prescribe a new drug, I wonder if there's actually less resistance this time around. If a doctor has become comfortable prescribing Lovaza for patients, for example, wouldn't it make it somewhat easier for them to consider prescribing the newer, better version? It's not like this is a completely new type of therapy, just a better molecular structure. Seems to me that would make it easier to adopt.

    • Rx tracking very well, remember last Friday most doctors office's were closed for Good Friday. Actual Rx would probably have been 20% higher than reported, if not for the holiday closings.

      Sentiment: Strong Buy

    • terrybradshaw616 Apr 4, 2013 2:53 PM Flag

      This will snowball as coverage gets better.Im an ex Pharma rep,this is how launches start.I crack up when I read people like Adam F,its like he has never seen a drug launch before!

    • so basically all this noise from people saying "AMRN needs BP to launch" is proven a joke.
      "Interestingly, early weekly Rx data for these potential blockbuster drugs looks similar to Vascepa, in contrast to [Astra Zeneca's (NYSE: AZN)] Brilinta, which had a disappointing launch."
      And let's not forget the chart that I shared from an SA article last week that set the record for thumbs down. h**p://seekingalpha.c*m/article/1300831-supernus-record-for-worst-launch-in-recent-history?source=yahoo

      • 2 Replies to shortfishfry
      • kkllfla Apr 5, 2013 8:11 AM Flag

        They need BP because they are running out of $$$. Their cash burn rate is enormous and when the next quarterly report comes out it will be scary. If no BP or hedge fund partner by this next report,the stock will take a significant hit. PS: I'm long....and a little worried.

        Sentiment: Hold

      • It's not that they NEED BP to launch... it's that BP can do it on a larger scale, so it's easier. Look at Lovaza. Their first year was like $65 million total sales in 2007. then the get bought out by GSK and the first 2 months of 2008 they did $102 million in just those 2 months. That's what BP can do with a drug. It's harder to do it alone with limited resources (funds, employees, etc).

        If AMRN hasn't been bought out prior to Anchor approval (and I expect that they likely will be), then they DEFINITELY need BP help to do that much larger population... either through buyout or partnership.

        Sentiment: Strong Buy

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