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Amarin Corporation plc Message Board

  • the_girl_with_the_dhagon_tattoo the_girl_with_the_dhagon_tattoo Apr 7, 2013 11:42 AM Flag

    Reasons Vascepa will FLY


    AMRN in the last 3-4 months has accomplished all of the following..
    - Launched Vascepa on time as advertised
    - 4 New Patents
    - sNDA ANCHOR submitted for PDUFA date this year
    - Tier 2 coverage, unheard of for drug at this stage.
    - 1st ever ANCHOR Patent 520

    And over the next 45 days AMRN has these catalysts..
    - Combo-Statin Data
    - 2 more Patents
    - Q1 Script data 100% and guidance ahead

    thanks to previous poster for above

    This topic is deleted.
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    • These are the REAL (negative) catalysts going forward (written by someone whi has been right about AMRN):

      *Script and sales numbers will be very bad ("declining acceleration" from a very low base)

      *Street estimates are WAY too high and both sales and PPS estimates will be cut with at least 60 to 80% very soon going forward.

      *PPS will soon be under $5 and that will really start instituitional sell offs combined with heavy short attacks and probably forced selling of retail suc*ers.

      *The fear of leveraged AMRN going bankrupt very soon will be very real

      *This will guarantee a veritable death spiral (the lower the PPS the larger the fear, the lower the PPS the higher the dilution and so on)

      *Mgt will probably leave very soon when they understand that they won't be able to pump Anchor, there are NO upside for them in staying with a sinking ship, ONLY upside (ESPECIALLY if they can dump their remaining holdings before AMRN is at penny levels).

      Sentiment: Strong Sell

    • And everything you mention has only gotten the PPS down.

      As for your "catalysts",

      Anchor is fully expected and priced in, Combo/statin are not seen as relevant (it is not viable in the real world product it is a decade away anyway, i.e no value).

      Patents have no impact on the PPS (only negative it seems).

      Mgt wil not give any guidance (they really can't).

      Script data will be horrible going forward (it has to with so few reps selling on me-too product).

      Sentiment: Strong Sell

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