Specialist Missed The Point - Market Share Is Key Metric
The Specialist went on about slow Vascepa script growth but overall market share is the key metric to our success. Continued penetration relative to competitors offsets everything else. I saw the latest spreedsheet and V's market share is now 2.05% - up from the previous week. My only concern is since the launch in January, Lovaza's market share has remained flat while and our growth has come at the expense of niacin's share decline. Essentially, Dr's are moving their patients to V from niacin and not Lovaza. I'm not sure if this is due to the initial targeting of cardiologists. I have a feeling Lovaza's "base" resides with GP's.
A biotech analyst needs to come forward with some DD and answer what the appropiate share growth should be after 2-3 months by a small bio-tech company.
I think Lovaza is 50% off label, I also think it is a slow process for doctors to switch from something they see as working(Lovaza) to something they see as similar but a higher cost to many. Education and Tier 2 will resolve that eventually but you won't see Lovaza sales plummet until 2014 when Vascepa for Anchor becomes the only option as Lovaza will not be covered for insurance for Anchor thus Vascepa becomes much cheaper so even doctors that think they are similar will switch.
It's almost reassuring to me that doctors still see fish oil as a viable option and not falling for the bad studies that have come out.
I'd be interested to see what % of Lovaza scripts are PCP vs cardiologist. If anyone gets that onfo it would tell a mighty tale.
Interesting and useful observation dendreon and I agree that in the final analysis market share determines market leader. At this point, the playing field is not level because as you correctly point point out Lovaza's sales are largely derived by general practice physicians and much of this came about before managed care started requiring lab values before allowing payment. Amarin has a much smaller sales force, much less time on the market and fewer resources than the global giant GSK. So, give them time to find a marketing partner, do global alliances, get expanded indications and then we will see a real market share race! For now, I think our best indication is the overall NRx trend lines measured in months not week to week. Amarin is doing a good job because they have a better product but they need more salespeople, expanded indications and more resources. Even with 2 out of three- they will win this battle because GSK is living with a sunset product in Lovaza and just trying to harvest it.