If the key catalysts at the end of the year do not favor longs, do you feel the price will change significantly or that the negative side of these binary events are already priced in? I do realize that there are some other variables such as Q2 earnings, but it seems as if none of the major players care of script growth.
The FDA worked with Amarin to set the requirements for the Anchor trial. It set it's expectations there, and Vascepa met and exceeded any and all requirements. Why would they come back now and say "Uhhhh, not sure what we were thinking earlier when we asked you to only do this, but we need more info now." That's not going to happen. The endpoints were all met. The safety profile is great. There is no reason why Anchor won't get approved.
FDA will approve Anchor, the Adcom is recommended(which to FDA means required) when a new drug is going for an indication with no other similar drug. It is also recommended for NCE and since there never was one for Marine this Adcom will likely also resolve the NCE issue.
TO assume FDA needs more info is based on nothing.
The Anchor partnership details will determine AMRN's fate the next year plus.
Right now growth puts Marine sales, with current sales force, leads minimum 100 million 2014 sales but actual pace puts them at 177 million in 2014. Anchor sales should be 300 million minimum and likely 500+ million with proper sales force.
So we are looking at 400 million to 677 million in 2014 and most of that depends on partnership deal. Will AMRN own 75% of those sales, 100%?? Will they get 1 billion up front for 25%, will they just transfer the sales force cost to a partner and not get cash up front....
Anchor will be approved, the main question is what will the launch of Anchor look like.
After the October Adcom I suspect the partnership will be formed so they are in place before the launch.
So we may not have much in catalyst to move the price higher until Adcom but then it's positive Adcom, partnership, and then Anchor launch within 2-3 months.
So anyone looking tog e tin or add can probably sit tight through the summer and in late September jump on board. I've been waiting for a bottom to add since December ad have not pulled the trigger, expect I won't be until September.