I expect Anchor to be approved and will increase the scrips written /income produced to cover some of their costs ...BUT many MD's will not prescribe until they see convincing clinical benefit hopefully provided by the Reduce it trial results .
So imagine if you are running this company .
The gold ring is a positive results from the Reduce it trial -----that changes everything --proof of clinical benefit in reducing heart attacks in a US population ----without that you have expensive "fish oil "
So , how do you survive until then because Reduce It results IS the final show down.
They apparently can't make a deal to co launch Anchor ....so they get Anchor approved and don't expand marketing and sales for that cohort ? Once approved they must move forward and will be in a race of cash burn vs income coming in ...they must have modeled this a thousand way ...all of which say raise $ now.
By the way ...there are very few CV drugs out there PROVEN to reduce heart attacks in a US population...
so Reduce it results will be closely watched.
I agree with JL in the following--expect early results, maybe by late 2014 early 2015
Dr.Barry Sears is optimistic on Reduce-It results.He wished that they had used 6 gram/day dosage for best results.He believes inflammation reduction prevents CV events.He uses AA/EPA ratio.
For Jelis,AA/EPA dropped from 1.6 to 0.8. However Americans have much higher AA/EPA ratio--or much higher C-RP.
So JZ couldn't sell the company following approval although he implied to shareholders that
he was going to attempt do so and we had serious interest from BP......
Then he couldn't get a partner to help launch Vascepa here in the U.S.
Then he couldn't get a partner to launch Vascepa in Europe or Asia.
Then he borrows 100 million for a 150 million dollar payback to launch Vascepa on a GIA plan, and most of that is used up already about a year later.. Now a 150 million dollar secondary at $5ish that could have been done from $12 on down in the past year or so.
Apparently JZ cannot find a partner now to help launch Anchor even if that is approved.
Ditto no partner to help fund "Reduce It" which is the savior trial for this company although no other
"fish oil" company has had positive compelling data thus far to prove that pure EPA reduces CV events in large scale clinical trials.
That Officers have sold over 25 million dollars worth of their own stock since approval and haven't bought back any shares since then, even at $5?
The positives? At least no one has talked about NCE in awhile!
LOL JL...."JZ is a great CEO". I guess if you were short! LOL!
Coumery ...quick follow up ---say you have 24 months to Reduce it Results --July 2015 ---model a cash flow survival till then givin rate of scrip growth , expenses , loan payments etc ----you can be down to your last $100 when the results come out ... if Vascepa shows clinical benefit in reducing heart attacks you have a block buster drug ...if not ..well thats biotech
That doesn't account for the roughly $150 million they should have on hand plus any revenues. That is enough for 5 qtrs. That takes the company to almost 2015. With the weekly growth in scripts they should be fine if they keep it up. I would say they are getting by on months with a weekly revenue growth.