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Amarin Corporation plc Message Board

  • cincyreds57 cincyreds57 Jul 24, 2013 10:45 AM Flag

    JP Morgan note

    Courtesy of Atlas on I-Hub :
    JP Morgan note this AM.

    Following recent meetings with Amarin's management team, we wanted to share our updated thoughts on the story.

    Overall, we came away from the metings with a view that Amarin continues to make progress on the V launch but that the broader ANCHOR opportunity remains the key value driver for AMRN shares.

    While catalysts before the October panel meeting are limited, we continue to see value in the V franchise and remain Overweight AMRN shares.

    AMARIN has retained outside consultants and is actively preparing for an ANCHOR panel meeting which is tentatively scheduled for October 16....Recent offering should provide sufficient capital for an ANCHOR launch.

    While the timing of the secondary was clearly surprising, we believe the deal gave Amarin reasonable cash cushion to continue with the rollout of V including a standalone ANCHOR launch.

    Amarin still will seek a partner to promote ANCHOR and the Company does not plan to expand much beyond its current 275 sales reps.

    Partnership discussions continue; activity unlikely until around ANCHOR app. Amarin remains in discussions with potential partners and the co appears more open to potential ptshp for the ANCHOR indication although M&A is not out of the question).

    Given current RX trends and recent secondary..we are adj our revenue and EPS estimates. We are also lowering our price target to $12 from $18

    So, I (cincy) ask the question again concerning sales reps. Note they state they are not increasing sales staff by much. So, as V sales management, what would you have your reps focused on? Marketing, personal visits to just cardiologists? Really, with only 275 reps (more like 260, based on current openings) that 5 per state roughly. How do they cover any ground?

    This is not me bashing, with 14,4775 shares I need to know and understand their course of action.

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    • Say what you will about this JP note but when the current price is 5.30 and the price target is 12.00 that is a pretty strong buy recommendation in my book!

    • I will be livid if they launch the Anchor indication with 275 reps total for both. That's completely choking off your potential income. It's bad enough now launching Marine with that low of reps.

      If they don't get a partner for Anchor, I will be very unhappy. They have stated repeatedly they have no plans on launching that indication alone. The tone of this note seems to be suggesting they are preparing to do just that though. I don't like it.

      Sentiment: Strong Buy

      • 2 Replies to dallas1dallas1
      • They will get a partner because the Anchor population is 40 millions which will attract a big pharma. At the same time they are not desperate and will not delay an Anchor launch since they now have the money readily available. Be patient and just chill for now.

      • Dallas....IMHO, then prepare to be "very unhappy". I strongly feel there will be no marketing partner even if we get Anchor. The Marine market has taken off very slowly from an outright revenue viewpont. You could hire 1,000 more reps and the gain, dollar wise, to the company (forget percentage sales and script increases for now), based on current sales per rep, would not justify 25% of the added costs. It is totally illogical to presume that if Vascepa is not replacing Lovaza, or taking off like gangbusters with physicians for those with Tg's over 500, that it is going to be an outright homerun selling it to those with TGS under 300. I don't care
        if the potential Anchor market is ten times the size of China. You can't eat nor spend "potential".

        So for now, if Anchor is approved, the existing 275 reps they will have another indication to sell to physicians.
        Not all bad. They need that indication now just to justify their own current salaries. If down the road they can't handle all the new Anchor business because it is so "hot", I'm sure AMRN will find a way to hire additional sales people. But you don't hire 500 more sales reps upon Anchor approval thinking it will be a blockbuster only to come to find that it is just the little brother of "Marine". This time you have actual sales justify the hiring of additional sales people...not "hope". GLTALs

    • Some things about the secondary and "state of the nation" imo...

      With the ~$100 million loan of last December due to be repaid in the late autumn to avoid punitive interest rates and the complete loss of rights to the ip (which was collateral) and to have a subsequent balance sheet that they could still gia from a negotiating perspective, the reasons are apparent.

      I'm troubled by the timing terms and conditions. The number of shares and options match up with the short shares outstanding. Optics are not good at almost 52 week low. The 30 day option period ensures that there will be no substantial increase in share price until expiration.

      Are we truly on the cusp of a turnaround. I can't honestly see that the Board of Directors would have the "stomach" and "conscience" for the current share price if there were not a "light at the end of the tunnel" or some plan.

      I noted people talking about Abingworth's holdings - now apparently split in three pots. Have we over the past year been victims to something like one arm of the organization selling to the other to trigger losses and drive the price down so that the other is well positioned at a low cost base or other kinds of charades between associated organizations - some kind of dishonourable but legal manipulation?

      I think that there needs to be a "real shareholder" presence in the Q and A session of the next earnings conference call. Any ideas as to how to make it happen so that there are not just softball questions from analysts?

    • lol....everything is great....but.....let's go ahead and lower that PT 33%.

      What a freaking disaster this stock is.

    • I suspect after that note that this is just the first of many price target cuts

 
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