I don't think you really understand business that well. The only reason that GSK would buy Amarin would be to keep it off the street. Amarin management would not be getting the premium they want if they sell to GSK. GSK is making millions on this Rx and will continue to battle. Large corporations do not admit defeat and buy a product so they could replace their own product. I really think people need to stop saying GSK will be a suitor.
The REAL Business question is: Has GSK gotten it's investment back from Lovaza? If they have, then a 'deal' of some type with AMRN would be indicated.
However, the past decision making by Joe Z indicates that he has made his money, and now wants to go down in history as the guy who pulled off another monumental buyout of his product. Will his greed and ego mania serve the retail investor ? Only time will tell...
For GSK, it depends if they really want to stay in the fishoil market in the end and nobody knows that to be the case. Yea they will fight for market share with Lovaza for now, but with an AMRN ANCHOR approval Lovaza is a dead duck as a drug and totally outflanked. GSK wouldn;t buy Vascepa and AMRN to shelf it. They would buy it to shelf Lovaza and develop it along ANCHOR and MARINE lines and let it cannabolize Lovaza sales! This is what they did with Advair when it came along. They allowed Advair to cannabolize Serevent and Flovent sales and it worked in spades for them in asthma and COPD!
No I wouldn;t rule out GSK as a future suiter at all unless they wash their hands of the fishoil market down the road! GSK already has a rich pipeline just approved, in regulatory, and in late stage trials, respectively. In the end they may see declining Lovaza sales if it continues as not even worth the effort! For now its worth their effort to continue as they are.
I see no action on this premise with Vascepa, AMRN, or GSK either way until ANCHOR is approved. Then the conditions for a buyout return whether its GSK or somebody else!
Sentiment: Strong Buy
Hey parttimer .........
One of the most ridiculous posts I've seen in the last few weeks. To keep Vascepa off the street? Lovaza has seen the end of its product cycle life expectancy. It has two patents, lost its 5 year NCE exclusivity, has a newer FDA warning label regarding heart fib., reduced its suppliers from 3 to 1, pulled its website and generates the majority of its current sales off label. GSK has tried twice to get it approved for what is now the Anchor maket and failed. You really think management would acquire Vascepa for 4-6 billion and shelve it? It will capture the Marine market over time and replace niacin (Abbott's drug), has AMR102, is looking at Anchor and Reduce It. I don't know if you're a basher or just uninformed but may want to modify your GSK case. I forgot to mention the CP recent withdraw by GSK but this has a buyout or partnership written all over it.
Realize that up to 2/3 of Lovaza prescriptions are of the off label version, when Anchor is approved in Dec.those Lovaza presriptions for off label use will disappear (insurance companies will no longer pay for off label presciptions since there will be an approved drug for that indication) where do you think GSK will make up for losing up to 2/3 of Lovaza's sales.Think about it!