GSK, who is going to take a bath now on future sales of Lovaza, which is currently outselling Vascepa 18:1,
is then going to spend a billion plus to buy AMRN, so they have a high priced premium fish oil product to compete against generic Lovaza...a product they have been pushing now on physicians and patients for almost a decade?
So they now go into the same doctors offices that they have been seeing for 10 years, and basically tell them that they were really just kidding, and Lovaza was really a piece of cr_p, and this new Vascepa is fifty times better for patients, but costs 5x's more, and they should switch immediately.
And the doctors are going to say sure...thanks for the tip...costs are irrelevant...I believe you.... and they'll just
switch every patient they have over from generic Lovaza, to Vascepa, something they haven't done to date where the costs of each drug are similiar?
GSK will tell the doctors that they have Vascapa now, which is the best in class at current, and ask doctors to swich all Lovaza scripts to Vascepa. Do you want to take the BEST one or cheap with side effects one?
They can't sell Lovaza or the generic to Anchor once Vascepa is approved. GSK currently sells off label and have been doing it with the sales force from day 1. Buying AMRN always made sense. Right now they will lose 1 billion in revenue per year possibly starting next year if generics come out and AMRN gets Anchor.
They could easily buy AMRN for 5 billion and recoup all the money rapidly by replacing Lovaza with Vascepa, tell current doctors in Marine it has no side effects like Lovaza and then have Anchor market to themselves until 2020 and beyond, not to mention the large boost from Reduce It-assuming positive results.
They only recently added side effects tot he label for Lovaza so gives them a perfect scenario to mention the new side effects and introduce a replacement without side effects.
Marine is likely selling 300-500 million per year with Lovaza so generics have a maximum revenue of 300 million, but they sell for cheaper so 100-300 million market for generics. Take out some for the people that prefer no chance of side effects and you get maximum 200 million in generic US sales. Plus some international sales. Peak Anchor sales are expected near 2 billion, peak Reduce It sales could push that number 5 times as high. GSK could get Vascepa sales to 2 billion within 1-2 years and recover the investment in AMRN in 3 years or so,
So, yeah, it makes SENSE for GHK to buy AMRN, but that doesn't mean GSK is smart enough o do it.
Actually it does make sense fghton. If you go to buy a new car, the salesman doesn't say that last years model was a piece of junk. They tell you about all the good things the new model has to offer. They tell you how much better your life will be with the new model. And they don't try to sell you the stripped down model with manual windows and no AC. They sell you on an improved quality of life.