The current pps suggests the market is 99.99% certain the advisory committee will give Anchor a thumbs down.
1) the Reduce It requirement is met,
2) Vascepa's superior efficacy in trig management in the Anchor group is incontrovertible and
3) the safety profile is pristine,
how can the market be so sure the advisory panel will ignore all the evidence? Why does the market assume the panel will behave so oddly?
That's what we need to establish before the 16th. None of this adds up folks.
The price we see today isn't simply based on the pending Adcom. Sales of Vascepa are gaining traction but with a cash burn of over 50 mil a qtr with revenues 1/10 that, WS isn't about to value AMRN higher since mgt has all but nixed a BP ( at least overtly) buyout or partnership. GIA changed the valuation methodology.
The adcom is important for sure as Amarin needs the expanded indication but what they do with it is even more important. The share price will improve as scripts improve and margins improve. In essence there are multiple factors involved. If AMRN gets the expanded indication and can show a trajectory and plan that gets them to at least to breakeven, then the share price will increase dramatically......over time. A buyout or partnership will of course improve the share price overnight.
The word is getting out but in the absence BP in the mix, it will take time.
Because all legitimate financial advisors are allowed to post on Yahoo boards? Good lord. I should set up a "Noise canceling headphone" booth right next to this board. October tells all, not this post.
There certainly appears to be a disconnect here when you look at the PPS. I expected a run up here going into the ADCOM. As the days count down and no increase of the PPS it starts to become troubling. I bet I am not the only one who has gone over mentally all the reasons why ANCHOR should be approved. You come to the conclusion "Why of course it should". Then you look at the PPS and start to wonder: "What am I missing here?". As a poster below notes the Market is rarely that wrong and the Market right now is betting no ANCHOR. While I do not propose some sort of conspiracy theory here or a leak, the PPS just does not add up. The only hope is that the run up is delayed and will happen as we get closer. But everyday that passes with the run up not happening gives me reason to pause and wonder.
If the market assumed a 25% chance the panel would vote in favor of approval, the pps should be at least $15. It is rare for the market to be as wrong as we think it is. This has all the signs of information that has not been disclosed being the hands of a few. It looks very similar to the situation with SAC Capital and Elan, and Biogen prior to the bapi data release. There may be shenanigans involved here as well.