I am taking whole sale price of $184 x scripts(average weekly) x weeks in a quarter(13) x 4 quarter for yearly projection. I am assuming expense is high at 40 million a quarter and 30 million a quarter. at 15K scripts the company is sustainable even with Reduce-it running, with out reduce- it and a bigger sale force scripts between 10-15K the company is viable. these are not crazy weekly scripts number to obtain. with the projected scripts growth we should hit this area around the middle of next year. the morale of the story is drive scripts up, cash on hand will last until revenue exceed expenses. Reduce-it can even continue and be supported only with 15K average weekly scripts.
scripts revenue(yearly) net( expense 160 million a year) net(expense 120 million a year)
7000 66976000 -93024000 -53024000
10000 95680000 -64320000 -24320000
15000 143520000 -16480000 23520000
20000 191360000 31360000 71360000
25000 239200000 79200000 119200000
things are looking good with the new projects, if revenue growth continues. A long of variable until now and then tho.
updates for projected expense of 80 million a year
scripts revenue net(expense 80 million)
7000 66976000 -13000000
10000 95680000 15680000
15000 143520000 63100000
These calculations are very similar to mine: the break even point is 16k scripts weekly. IF (big IF) we continue to gain about 300 new scripts a week , we need another 33 weeks to get to 16k. This will happen approx. next May. After that we're cash flow positive. And since AMRN has enough money until then, the most important thing they can do is to make sure that sales are keeping grow.
The second thing they need to do is, probably, make some "early" interim analysis of REDUCE so some kind of catalyst will be close and on the table. I've no doubts that eventually s/p will go back to $15+. The only question, will it take 1,2 or 3 years?
Amarin has no control over "early " interim analysis ...that is completely up to the DMA ( Data Monitoring committee ...expected mid 2014
Before you get to excited about $15 +
There is a possibility here that the most benefit... is that by aggressive statin therapy ...getting LDL to 100 ..in high risk patients ...there is little benefit gained by adding Vascepa ...or didn't Harvey et al explain that to you.
From a CAD ( coronary artery disease ) patient pt of view ...if Vascepa fails to show benefit ...well its one less drug i have to pay for .
I happen to believe it will show benefit ...which is why I continue to own ( and added under 2 ) some shares ...but a note to CRO and Tod ( whom I both like and enjoy reading their posts ) ...My position in AMRN represents 2 % ...thats right 2% of my net worth ...I don't like to gamble
The heck with reduce-t. If FDA adheres to advisory recommendation at the Dec. meeting, AMRN should just
stop reduce-it , save ALL the expense and then launch marketing campaign to MD's to suggest using V.
off label for high tri's. Use FDA approved V that's safe and effective.
And FDA stated in the AdCom Meeting that it is legal to prescribe V off label.
Yes, one option is: off the hook and campaign for off-label prescription. But the company can always do it, even with baiting the hook. Am I right?
Excellent Magic! Although I believe they need to keep Reduce-It going for the long term prospects of the company (and future buyout), if they cancel Reduce-It, they become profitable much quicker due to the decrease in significant expenses.
also a side note remember big brother lovaza is getting ~90K, peak at 110K last year, scripts a week. its not absurd for amarin to capture 1/3 of it at 30K that can happen in 1~1.5 years. Vascepa superior benefit is well known. I think doctors are smart and will wait a year before giving a new drug to their patient once they see the comparison lab test results between V versus L.
I'm sure the bean counters in the company have crunched the numbers every which way from Sunday. The main hang up for me is the CEO's remark about possibly canceling reduce-it. That severely lowers the projected sales target numbers. I realize that reduce-it could come up a non-starter in which case we're screwed. But without even trying it reduces us to a fixed small sales target (even counting the off label sales). My hope is that Joe isn't foolish enough to dump the reduce-it.
I think Joe Z has proven to be the biggest moron to walk the face of the earth or the biggest scam artist. More interested buyers then employee's. NCE much ado about nothing. $15 a share offer. Then he sells most his shares at $14 along with the board and management.
He needs to keep Reduce It going until at least Dec. when the FDA makes a finally decision. Between now and then one of the avenues he and AMRN should pursue is to negotiate with the FDA just how AMRN is to continue funding the Reduce It trial since ANCHOR sales was to do this. The FDA has to be made aware in no uncertain terms that AMRN in its current state cannot afford to complete the study. To do so requires income which could come in the form of a conditional approval for the ANCHOR indication. The FDA could label Vascepa with the notation that there is no known benefit at this time regarding CV events. Amarin would further agree to withdraw the conditional labeling upon negative results of the Reduce It trial if that were to occur. The catch here is that the FDA needs to be as interested in the outcome of Reduce It as the say they are and voiced in the ADCOM meeting.