jt: Agree, Yes, we are a week behind, 10/25 numbers we never got? 11/01 is this coming Friday. Understand we're running late, but we know the numbers have never really been very accurate, although is it consistent. Hopefully HB can get them and post them.
Medical update on Vascepa regimen; i'm on my 6th day since starting, feeling pretty good really, no dry eyes, no change in my mood other than feeling better from an energy standpoint. Seem to have more energy, out worked my son helping him build a Haunted House in his garage with Black plastic. I'm doing the Mad Scientist gig, "Doctor Detroit" instead of being a really scary Haunted House, we're doing the mild scary with some adult humor thrown in.... Frank Zappa will be there, we even did some rudimentary animations, pretty clever if I may add.... Good luck with those "Trick or Treaters"
"Meet you on the other side Ray"
JT, Do you have the latest data or know where to get it? I usually just wait for info. to be posted on this board, but haven't seen anything other than the 10/18 info. here. Where is 10/25?
BTW - I am holding now (may buy more at some point). I can't understand any intelligent investor selling Amarin now at these prices when there is only upside (at least short term). Stock is grossly undervalued. I think the only reason that it is this low (and not $3-4) is because a lot of Longs bailed out of frustration (bad - dumb move) and threw in the towel and of course there is still the manipulation of course which comes with the territory. The delta now only has to be a few cents to be a big jump percentage wise so 2.1 - 2.6 is an increase of 24% !!! No brainer. I bought a lot of shares when it dipped below 2 and already ahead. I know - I am doing more day trading... low price stocks (especially with Companies that have little chance of going belly up or having shares diluted - short term) are a great way to make money easy. Did the same with DCTH. It went up almost 100% recently (and then back down) on minor news because the share price increase was only 30 cents !!! Apple has to be back over $600 plus to do the same thing...
Sentiment: Strong Buy
The only thing Amarin can pray for at this point is a surge in Rx growth. The fact that AdCom basically demonstrated little confidence in Cardio outcomes for the class as a whole places an additional hurdle on maintaining even the modest script growth seen lately. The Anchor vote will place a cloud over the trig lowering class of drugs in the eyes of at least some of the current prescribing MDs after the FDA highlighted those studies which showed no outcome benefit. It is unfortunate that the FDA basically focused only on the recent negative data and dismissed Jelis and any positive data. The decision cannot help the class and if anything will do at least some damage to the class as a whole. Combine this with a sales force half the size and it is difficult to see how Amarin can possibly even maintain the very modest Rx growth they have shown over the last few months. If one takes an honest look at what lies ahead ( generic Lovaza, potential managed care restrictions to push cheaper generic, an effective new competitor coming, half the sales force, and FDA snub) it is difficult to see any sustained Rx growth for Vascepa. Under these challenges and without a miracle BO, partner, or miraculous reversal by the FDA in December it is difficult to see how the need for additional funding does not show its ugly head sooner than expected before the end of 2014.
Makes sense. The only option is:
1) As Matt Herper of Forbes emailed me-- Continue Reduce-It-as this gives doctors confidence-that Vascepa/Amarin is spending money to verify its benefits.
2) Cut back elsewhere to the bones for 2-3 years to survive. Here only keep essential top management-pay them some salary-but more thru stock options.If they decline--then that means -they have NO CONVICTION--would you have some one leading who does not have conviction ?
3) Pharmacyclic Inc.-PCYC went from 80$/sh. in 2000 to 0.75$/sh. in 2008 .No one would lend it money. Robert Duggan was hired-replaced Richard Miller-Chairman,CEO-- Duggan lent 6.4 mil.$ and later bought 20% of the outstanding stock--later found partners --Johnson & Johnson who gave lot of money(Milestone payments) for 50% of profits. PCYC is now close to 124$/sh.
Thank you very much. It does appear that their momentum has slowed a bit for the first time. Lets hope it will surge once again. I am concerned however with the reduction of staff. What will happen to future sales? A rethorical question. They are selling and therefore are making some needed dollars but will it be sufficient to grow profits in the future. I suspect we wlll get some forward looking statements this Nov. Odd how vascepa stalled at this moment in time, coinciding with the Badcom event we all just witnessed.
Thanks for posting scripts data Home; seems to have leveled out.... 6255, 6215, 6239 (last 3 weeks).
So, doing the math, RRx (refills) week ending (10/11) 6215 - 3122 = 3093 , for week ending (10/18), 6239 - 3170, RRx = 3069. We'll see. At least Lovaza is decreasing as well, wonder where all the delta in scripts went? L reduced by 1546 scripts, whereas V increased by only 3170 - 3122 = 48 scripts.
Thanks, HB. Do you follow i-hub.? We have some very proactive individuals compiling letters to congressmen, amarin, fda etc. Zumantu has also developed an impressive website titled "Vascepa Adcom Resources" I know they could use your help and your connections.