The only way that Amarin can stabilize the stock and the company at this point is to offer a big pharma partner a sweeter deal. Rather than certain dilution to complete Reduce-it they should offer big pharma the following:
Pharma company offers to pay for completion of Reduce-it and that partner will participate 50/50 with Amarin only if and when the study proves successful. This greatly reduces the upfront cost to a big pharma company and that also eliminates the potential partner assuming all of Amarin's debt, expenses, and losses as the results are awaited. This would significantly reduce Amarin's projected cash burn levels and eliminate the need to raise additional funding through more dilution. If the study proves successful both companies benefit from the power of a big pharma sales force and the much larger market of the expanded indication. The cost to a big pharma company under this scenario is far less and might be viewed as an acceptable risk/reward investment.
At this point, how JZ intends to grow sales with 1/2 sales force let alone maintain the around 6000 per week is questionable. Clearly if he partnered sales would increase. Focusing on Marine sales and getting more of GSK pie should be the target. At this point I'm waiting for BO anywhere around 4 +/- 1 (BP will have to pay the debt too). They can decide if they want to gamble on Reduce-it. Looking forward getting out of this total terd and moving on.
JZ's famous quote "exciting 60-90 days"
There will be no buyout anywhere near the $4 price you suggest. Do the math: $4 x 170m shares = $680M. Add in the debt and anticipated $80m loss per year and big pharma would be looking at a $1B+ investment risk. That will not happen as the risk is too great for such a cost. But I do think a big pharma would risk $100M to complete Reduce-it and have the ability to participate in the expanded market if the study proves successful.
I wonder how much Amarin could get for selling the rights to Vascepa in Europe and anywhere else that they own the rights. I would think that this could generate enough cash to survive until Reduce-It is completed. Why management has not yet applied for permission to sell in Europe is beyond me (they already have one or more European patents).
I don't understand the logic here.
Why do a big pharma care too much about Reuce-it?
GSX did not push for it. they just need market it off label. Actually I think Reduce-It actually reduced the big pharma's interest. thye have nothing to gain if it is successful but a lot of risk if it fails.
Stop Reduce-it and lets FAD and all those panel scientist to figure out what to do. focus on the prescription growth and some big pharma will definitely show some interests. GSX has proved that it is a $B market and it come only get better and the whole generation is getting older.
What you fail to understand is that physicians can prescribe off-label but they do assume some liability risk when they do so. As for a pharma company actively promoting off-lablel use it is not allowed by the FDA and comes with enormous fines if caught doing so.
If Joe Z were to announce such a deal the share price would certainly rise and many of the current clouds of uncertainty would be eliminated. Knowing that the study will be completed without the need for further funding and dilution would be extremely positive for the share price.