Amarin earned approximately 12 cents per average outstanding share in the quarter (less than 6 million); each "American" share is equivalent to 10 "English" shares. That's why the stock went up so fast.
To me, the unknowns here are:
- how many shares there are, on fully diluted basis? I reckon at least 10 million (American).
- how much did they sell? I mean, this is the first quarter with the new products; were they filling the channels, or did they indeed sell the products?
- what is the value of Amarin's existing research organization in Sweeden?
If indeed the sales booked in this quarter will remain at this level, or even increase, next quarter, and the dilution process (Elan's convertible) is slow, we might indeed have a bargain here. I would like to take a look at the balance sheet, but that's almost impossible with these guys (where to find their filings?).
Bapchaman and others occasionally drop by this board from the ELN board, given the strong interest ELN has in AMRN. I have found AMRN documents on their Web site Amarincorp.com
I think they have somewhere around 56M shares or 5.6M ADR's. As listed in their Q3 release.
I was pretty impressed with the Q3 results. I understand that the sales were "real" sales as there was was limited loading opportunities because these products were acquired and already on the market, not launched products. Sweden is still hanging around, and they need to make it profitable so it isn't a drag on the US.
Management, virtually all Ex-Elan executives, have said they will aquire a marketed or late stage product before the end of the year. Let's see if they deliver.
Overall, I agree that it may be a bargain, I'd also like to see more liquidity.
As I mentioned in my post, I believe Elan also owns convertible notes, that's why I'm not sure how many shares there are fully diluted (the company specifically mentioned "undiluted" shares in the earnings release).
Can you elaborate more on the Sweedish operations? Is this the old drug delivery business of Ethical Holdings, or are they working on other areas?
Incidentally, a stock that resembles a bit Amarin is tiny Bradley, BPRX.