I don't know what it will close at tomorrow, but I think this quarter is its strongest so I would suggest to hold off on any selling until the end of the Quarter. GRT is supposed to have additional joint ventures in the 4Q so that might give it an up tick. As far as refinancing goes they just got an upgrade from S&P to stable so that shouldn't be a problem. They plan on selling the community centers (low Margin) and reinvesting in higher margin MALLs. The mall portfolio is doing well and the community shopping centers doing poorly. GS has all the KMART stores closing in 2003 and GRT has stated they only see 50% closure of Kmart. GS has a fad for 2002 payout of 92% and 2003 97% of fad. Gs also states that GRT is selling at an 18% discount at 17.20 to their nav at 21.00/share. GS gives it a market performer. I think the dividend is safe and that is what the company says also, but I have been wrong before and companies lie so do your own DD.
I have seen this so many times before. We are going to sell this and buy that except they cannot compete in the marketplace for the best ppties because the dividend yield being paid is beyond any returns available in the marketplace today.
You tell me what malls out there are selling at 12 caps. Any mall selling at a 12 cap is a basket case needing lots of capital for a turnaround ala MLS and the Cincinnati mall I referred to in a previous post.
Say what you will but when the top mall reits are paying 8.5 CAPs for excellent mall-based ppties GRT isn't even in the running.
The bigger fear is in fact that Polaris has offered its highest levered ROI it can deliver immediately after developmt completed.
The best use of any free cash flow generated by GRT is to buy in stock so that it can reduce common dividend payments. There is no better investment. Suggesting that selling this and buying that is typical corporate blah blah blah.
Ask GRT what better investmt can they make in today's market then simply buying in their own shares and reducing dividend payouts thus retaining more free cash flow than they can generate from any other investment alternative.