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  • ferdiefor ferdiefor Apr 10, 2009 8:56 AM Flag

    Back over $2

    Come on. All reits up big yesterday.

    GRT is dead and buried. Just doesn't know it yet. GRT will have to secure every asset with rollover debt because no lenders will go unsecured on this old mall reit where assets need significant capex over time.

    GRT maintained a dividend far too high for far too long. It did so to try to maintain a high share price but the street saw through their folly.

    Now GRT is best served trying to sell its assets to local area groups of investors willing to put in new money and new lifeblood in to these old assets.

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    • re: "All reits up big yesterday." That's a plus, not a minus. If it's dead, we'll find out soon enough. Perhaps you're right. But I like being in a strong sector.

      I remember the false story of Mark Twain's death. Whereupon he quipped: "The reports of my death have been greatly exaggerated." As of the moment, GRT is on still its feet and moving.

      • 1 Reply to ou71764
      • GRT will be one of the stronger REIT's, as they always have been, once the recession cools and the economy improves. They have received favorable treatment from lenders and have a history as the preferred developer by lenders, community leaders and retailers when any of these entities has a choice, or when GRT is in competition for loans, land or anchors.

        From my observation, the recession bottomed out in the second and third weeks of February, the date when we saw the first in a succession of a good news regarding banks. I would be shocked if the economic recovery isn't in full swing by June or July, and completely behind us in a year or two.

        Anyone who claims Glimcher will not be profitable with a stock valuation close to its previous high in a couple years is likely someone who isn't really seeing what is happening or doesn't quite understand how retail development companies and commercial real estate loans work, and how the larger developments are intertwined with communities and local politics. The politics in particular strongly influence how banks treat good developers as does the understanding by banks that they will be far worse off if a developer goes under.

        The bottom line is everyone knows a recession is simply a short term, temporary situation to be weathered. The strategy is for everyone to work together to maintain until the economy rights itself. So no, GRT isn't going anywhere other than up.