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Glimcher Realty Trust Message Board

  • LA_Lost_Boy LA_Lost_Boy Sep 11, 2000 5:32 PM Flag

    We hit 52 week high

    Ferdiefor, I think this might be it..We may break
    52 week high tomorrow...
    As for a 5 year hold, I
    have mixed emotions..Although i love GRT's yeild, If
    it gets near $17, I am going to think about
    selling..I think we have good potential to make a run and
    could even go as high as $20, but at that point I'm
    looking at almost 70% profit plus dividends..

    I
    don't think you can go wrong holding on..Even with us
    at 52 week high, we are still lookin at a 12.25
    Yield...Good safe money..But as wek approach $20, you will be
    under 10% yield and pushing 2 year highs..

    Don't
    get me wrong..If GRT continues to show that it isn't
    going to back off, I'll hold..But if it shows sign of
    weakness or a top at $17-$20, I'll give some serious
    thought to moving on...

    Shoot..70% gain+dividends
    would make me more than happy....
    Looking for $17
    possibly this month....An upgrade by a broker would be
    good for a $2-$3 pop in no time...
    Take
    care..Congrats on our profits!!

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    • At $20 I would have to give serious thought to
      letting it go and wait for another cycle downturn to move
      back in.

      At this point the REIT market for the
      most part seems rational in terms of pricing these
      REITs on a yield basis. I'm not talking about
      underlying asset values, NAV or any of that other stuff that
      REIT mgmt's would love us to focus on in an attempt to
      have another wild runup of REITs ultimately crashing
      out at some premium to NAV level.

      With the
      exception of the highest profile REITs selling at premiums
      to NAV most of the market remains comfortably below
      (to my way of thinking which I concede is a minority
      viewpoint and not much liked viewpoint) their NAVs.


      If GRT were to get to $20 one has to wonder what
      market conditions allow for that to occur. It already is
      a 10% FFO grower that appears on the surface to be
      unappreciated simply because it is not in SF, NY, Boston,
      Atlanta, etc. If not market conditions then where is the
      rest of the REIT market priced in order for GRT to hit
      $20?

      Thanks for your thoughts and I am very happy with
      what I have made near term and like my yield
      better.

      What about dividend growth? Do you see a dividend
      increase next year? How are they avoiding dividend
      increases for so long?

 

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