When we do get news of one of the cohorts, it won't necessarily be a straightforward black or white situation. We know there would be no safety issues, but I'm guessing that not all 4 cohorts would have the efficacy that we want (to high IGF levels, too low, whatever) so even when we do get news 2nd quarter interim news it MIGHT even be looked upon as bad news if the specific cohort's efficacy is not good enough. My conclusion is there is a good chance we will have to be patient until the 3rd quarter to really know whether the trial was successful.
The other thing here is that as I understand it, institutional investors need Phase II results to get in. I am curious whether "interim" results meet that criteria anyway. We may get a short-term blip from the news but if those guys still can't buy, I imagine we won't go too far if anywhere. Ultimately I think you are right about timing so I am trying hard not to get my hopes up that any early announcement will do much. And as far as any preclinical data goes, I think those will simply be met with silence at this point as well. If Phase II is what we need for real buyers then in reality nothing else matters at this juncture. I think the last announcement proved that theory out.
John, as I've stated here before, my dream scenario is to be able to pick up more shares in the 5-6.5 range after clear positive phase II interim news (safety AND efficacy wise), so I don't mind at all if the institutional investors join us retail investors only after final top line results. Basically what I wanted to say to my friends on this board is not to get your hopes up that those interim news is what we are really all waiting for.