Teva trades attractively at a respective 12.8x and 7.1x past and forward earnings with 8.7% annual EPS growth forecasted over the next half decade. The bar has been set low, since EPS growth over the past 5 years has been several folds higher. Complemented with a beta of 0.34 and a dividend yield of 2.4%, Teva is both a safe and a high reward investment.
Current supply chain issues and industry-wide exclusivity losses warrant dramatic cost-cutting measures. Management is expected to trim $150-$200M from branded R&D and improve manufacturing efficiency. Closing up to 40% of its 50 FDF facilities, Morgan Stanley argues it is theoretically possible to produce $20M in savings per site. With Jeremy Levin now at the helm from Bristol-Myers, I anticipate the company's focus shifting more towards acquisitions. Dropping an unprofitable line and acquiring local emerging businesses, like PROLOR Biotech (PBTH), will help re-excite investors. Pressures are likely to increase in 2015-2016 when Nuvigil, Treanda, and Copaxone go generic, but the integration of Cephalon and growth in women's health are major catalysts.
Going forward, Teva is likely to consolidate. Past acquisitions of Barr, Pliva, and Ivax, while value-creating at the time, have led to unnecessary FDF redundancies. Product recalls and supply chain problems have been so bad that at one time backlogs nearly approached $400M. Taking proactive steps to make sure this does not happen again and communicating this effort to shareholders would give the company a needed multiples expansion.