Looks like someone has knowledge of the test enrollment. I wouldn't be suprised to hear of completed enrollment tomorrow. If so, should be good for $0.20 a share? What do you pundints think. What would that be worth to the share price? What would the completed 30 waiting period and successful test results be worth? $1.00??
Any and all thoughts welcome---including those that seem to have....shall we say skepticism towards Cardica, Dr Hausen and the Board. Sometimes people are rude on this board, but I value all countervailing opinions and commets...They make for balanced analysis.
Well the day has come. The trial is complete. Now we wait for the 30 day examinations to be conducted and the statistical analysis. FDA submittal in Q3.
Anyone want to throw a dart at todays market response?
I will stick with my original though with some of the thoughtful comments to this question I tend to think less than $0.20.
Long time holders you will be rewarded.
Not so sure an announcement about enrollment completion will do much for the stock price as everyone paying any attention expects it to come soon. The FDA submittal would be a more intersting milestone and approval even bigger. If you look at catalysts for stock appreciation and break them into two categories (sustainable to stock price and un sustainable to stock price) there are 2 for sustainable category and those are positive cash flow or buyout. Milestone announcements are great for speculators but the market is treating this stock well in the way of speculation. At this point there is a high probability that the trial will be completed successfully and that there will be FDA approval since these kinds of devices are not like pharm submittals. The unknown is can Cardica or any other company make money with this device which means can it be produced cost effectively and reliably.... Cardica will have to show that it can produce much more than 100 unit sales per quarter. Ive seen these larger med companies pick up great IP ideas only to find that they are almost impossible to manufacture in a reliable cost effective manner and thus had to invest millions more in development on top of the purchase . I think maybe they are learning from their mistakes. So if Cardica can get to positive cash flow this will command a much larger buyout price because at that point they wouldnt "NEED" to sell and buyers would have to chase. If Cardica cant get to meaningful sales any potential buyers would more than likely let them bleed out and pick up the carcas at firesale. I am cheering for Cardica to, as Clayton Christensen would say disrupt the current market. I am hoping they (partner rather than sell) with Applied or Intuitive to add a 3rd party to the current market dominators.